The latest in an irregular series of posts about the Tennessee Titans.
For the past dozen seasons, around the start of training camp, I have predicted which players the Tennessee Titans would keep when they cut down the roster to 53. I may have abandoned blogging regularly about the team, but this is an interesting enough exercise to keep me at it.
The intro, largely cribbed from past attempts at the task:
Each season, the day the Tennessee Titans players report to training camp, I attempt to predict which players they will keep after the cutdown all the way to 53. Some years this goes kind of okay, while in other years I end up on quixotic quests and stick on them long after it becomes obvious they are indeed quixotic quests. Most years, I’m happy to get 48 of the 53 right at this stage of the game, as the inevitable injuries, surprises, and attempts to be clever that don’t work out happen.
Last year, I got 45 of the 53 players who would be on the roster Week 1. Subsequent personnel moves explained some of the misses, as four of the players were not on the roster when camp opened, while getting the positional mix wrong explains some of the others (3 QB and 6 DL instead of my prediction 2 QB and 7 DL, for example). But I also flubbed a couple depth chart orderings that look bad in hindsight. So, here’s a chance to do better.
This is what the positional mix looked like for Week 1 last year:
The Titans still have the same head coach and coordinators, so this might be a useful guide for what they’ll do this year. In putting together this roster prediction, I relied a great deal on what players the Titans suited up for games last year. I think that gives us an extremely useful guide for the 46-man active roster, but the other 7 players remain a hodgepodge. They could credibly keep a third QB (not active on gameday) over a ninth offensive lineman (not active on gameday) or vice versa, and the only thing I can do from my couch is try to guess along with them.
QB (3): Matt Cassel, Marcus Mariota, Alex Tanney
Analysis: Two or three? If it’s two, Casssel or Tanney? My guess would be Cassel. The Titans have hit a point with Tanney where figuring out his role bothers me. As noted above, I didn’t expect them to keep three last year (though Tanney would spend most of the season on the practice squad). This is one of those variable roster spots, and there’s no way I would feel too comfortable with any prediction.
RB/FB (4): Jalston Fowler (FB), Derrick Henry, Khalfani Muhammad, DeMarco Murray
Analysis: Three chalk names, and Muhammad provides enough of a change-up and the ability to play special teams my guess is he’s in much better shape to make the team than most seventh-round picks as long as he keeps up his end of the bargain in training camp. David Fluellen is RB3/4, but I see him more as Henry/Murray insurance and to give the rest of the team similar looks. If they keep a different third RB not for injury reasons, my guess is that player is not on the roster right now.
WR (6): Corey Davis (unsigned), Eric Decker, Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Taywan Taylor, Eric Weems
Analysis: I feel pretty good about Davis, Decker, Matthews, and Taylor as the four receivers who dress weekly and play on offense. The other two spots are up in the air. Sharpe only played one position last year and doesn’t play special teams, so even as the predicted inactive they could prefer Harry Douglas over him. But Decker fits the same role as Douglas and is up weekly, so I don’t see them with a need for that role. Weems will depend on how comfortable the Titans are with other returners, both kick and punt, and a numbers game for the special teams positions he plays. He could potentially be competing with, say, Demontre Hurst for a spot on the 46/53.
TE (3): Jonnu Smith, Phillip Supernaw, Delanie Walker
Analysis: Three good names, but is there a space for a fourth, and is that player potentially on the roster? I think the Titans would probably like to have a mini-tackle. Unless Supernaw is a much better blocker, I doubt they see one on the current roster. Then, it’s the waiver wire or trade, playing 6OL, or changing the offense. My current favorite is plenty of 6OL sets. With the addition of Smith, I don’t see any potential role for Jace Amaro.
OL (8): Jack Conklin, Ben Jones, Dennis Kelly, Josh Kline, Tim Lelito, Corey Levin, Taylor Lewan, Quinton Spain
Analysis: Six chalk names in Conklin, Jones, Kelly, Lelito, Lewan, and Spain, then the two wild cards. With a good offseason, Sebastian Tretola could have maybe challenged Kline at right guard, but he had a bad one. My guess is they stick with Kline at right guard, but if he loses his starting spot, is there a need to keep him around as a regular backup? My guess is Josue Matias is also on the “starter or out” train. Kelly and Lelito are your gameday backups, and both have 6OL experience. Levin gets the iOL inactive spot, and I did not choose to make room for Brad Season as OL9.
DL (6): Mehdi Abdesmad, Jurrell Casey, Austin Johnson, DaQuan Jones, Karl Klug, Sylvester Williams
Analysis: Gameday actives: Casey, Johnson, Jones, Klug, Williams. Then it’s a matter of what they want for the backup. If they want a pure NT, Antwan Woods is the favorite. A vet, Angelo Blackson. Something else, somebody else. The biggest risk I see is Klug’s return to form after his Achilles injury, but I’m not fully confident in which player they would keep if they’re concerned about him.
LB (10): Daren Bates, Jayon Brown, Kevin Dodd, Derrick Morgan, Brian Orakpo, Nate Palmer, Erik Walden, Aaron Wallace, Avery Williamson, Wesley Woodyard
Analysis: Grouping inside linebackers and outside linebackers together is bad practice, but I did it anyway.
Outside linebackers: they’re in a rough spot with Dodd, counting on him but not comfortable with it. But I think with three guys for defensive purposes he’s number three with maybe Wallace and Palmer as primarily special teams players who are active. Or maybe they keep Walden up over Wallace. But I think all those guys make the team.
Inside linebackers: Brown, Williamson, and Woodyard play on defense. Bates is up for special teams purposes. I came up with a flex active spot and had Palmer penciled in there for his positional versatility and special teams value. That they re-signed him early in free agency means they like him, right?
DB (10): Kevin Byard, Johnathan Cyprien, Demontre Hurst, Adoree Jackson, Brice McCain, Logan Ryan, Da’Norris Searcy, LeShaun Sims, D’Joun Smith, Brynden Trawick
Analysis: Grouping together corners and safeties is also bad practice, but I did that anyway too.
Four good names at safety in Byard, Cyprien, Searcy, and Trawick. I don’t see a fifth.
Four names at corner I think are good in Jackson, McCain, Ryan, and Sims. Hurst is this year’s Valentino Blake, a veteran who can play special teams and be trusted not to screw up too badly as long as you don’t ask him to cover good players or often. LeBeau often keeps a lot of defensive backs, so I gave them D’Joun Smith as an extra corner. But that could easily be Kalan Reed or somebody else.
ST (3): Beau Brinkly, Brett Kern, Ryan Succop
Analysis; Chalk, chalk, chalk. The open questions are at returner, and those affect other positions.
Where will I be wrong?
1. I kept 24 offensive players and 26 defensive players. That’s the same as my roster projection last year, but the Titans actually kept 26 offensive players and 24 defensive players for Week 1.
2. Special teams roles are a mess. I don’t have a well-formulated idea of what they’re looking for at each position, so I may have too many R4/5 and not enough R2/3. Or vice versa.
3. They’ll inevitably make a roster move or two, like the ones they made last year and the year before.
4. I’m too used to no undrafted free agents making the team, so I do not project them to make it barring overwhelming evidence to the contrary. They could easily keep a player below my radar over, say, Tajae Sharpe.
5. The late sixth and seventh rounds are basically UDFA-plus, so it’s a mistake to prioritize those players over other ones.
6. Offensive line, defensive line, and corner stand out as positions where marginal players make the most improvement out of sight. I haven’t even listened to, say, Mike Mularkey’s press conference when players reported yesterday, so I easily be wrong at those positions in particular.
7. Injuries. One year I believe I got 46 (of 54) right, but seven of my misses were because players were placed on injured reserve after the start of camp.
8. I’m a guy who sits on his couch in Illinois and makes stuff up. People who talk to people who work inside St. Thomas Sports Park may know important things I do not. I also do not think like Jon Robinson and Mike Mularkey, but they’re the ones in charge of this project, so I try to think like I think they might think, and without that “talking to people” check, so I end up going on quixotic crusades no matter how much I try not to. Thus, getting 48 of 53 right is a performance I would be happy with given all the other stuff.