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Why I Don’t like a Titans Offense DVOA Thinks Is Okay

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The third in an irregular series of posts about the Tennessee Titans. Perma-disclaimer: I write for Football Outsiders, whose statistics, rate-stat DVOA and counting-stat DYAR, will be referenced throughout this article. Some numbers may be through Sunday’s games; opponent adjustments from the Texans’ play will have slightly affected some numbers. 

There has been a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth coming from Tennessee-following quarters, including from yours truly, about the quality of the Titans’ offense this season. It came Week 1 after the loss to Minnesota and has continued after most weeks. The wins against the Dolphins and Browns quieted the cries somewhat, but they rose again after Sunday’s loss to the Colts.

DVOA does not agree. DVOA actually rates the Titans’ offense fairly highly-currently 11th at 4.2%, right behind San Diego and Green Bay (9/10, 4.7%) and ahead of Detroit (12th, 4.2%), where Matt Stafford has gotten articles declaring him an MVP candidate. If they keep that up for the entire season, 4.2% would be their best offensive DVOA since 2009 (also 4.2%), and an 11th-place ranking would be their best since the halcyon days of Steve McNair and 2003’s third-place ranking. And it’s not just the DeMarco Murray-led run game that has been driving the offense. DVOA currently rates the pass game as pretty average, 15th at 16.0%, while Mariota is rated at almost exactly league average (-0.7%; 0% is league average).

This presents to us a puzzle. DVOA thinks the Titans’ offense is actually pretty average. The emanations from Titansland, including from me, say it is not average. I like DVOA quite a bit and believe it can be used to tell us interesting and powerful things. Why am I disagreeing with it?

1. The Titans are a consistent but not high-yardage offense.

DVOA places a great value on consistent success. This makes a great deal of sense. And this year’s Titans offense ranks highly by success rate-third at 48.4%, behind only Dallas and New Orleans, and well ahead of the league average of 43.3%.

At the same time, the Titans rank just 14th in yards per play, so their consistent successes are mostly only minor successes. My guess is a statistic like Bill Connelly’s IsoPPP for NCAA stats that measures explosiveness would rate the Titans quite poorly. Unfortunately, I’m not aware of an NFL statistic that captures quite that. (They’re 14th in FO’s open field yards, which measures rushing yards over 10, and in a 14-way tie for 13th with 3 passes of 40+ yards, for what those are worth.)

2. The Titans are good at moving the ball without getting first downs before third down.

Thing I believe is probably “true” but haven’t done the research to convince you of: first down is the most important down by a significant margin. Distance matters a fair amount for third down conversions, and the best way to get a first down is to not get to third down in the first place. (Along similar lines, I prefer the quarterback with more second quarter wins to the one with more fourth quarter wins.)

One thing the non-explosive Titans do not do is go from first down to first down. They had zero first down conversions in the first 58 minutes of Sunday’s game against the Colts, and that’s been a problem that’s plagued them for most of the season. In the first three quarters of games, the Titans get a first down on just 13.1% of their first down plays. League average is 21.1%. The Packers are second-worst at 16.2%. The Falcons lead the league at 29.8%. Yes, Atlanta is more than twice as likely as Tennessee to get a first down in first down in the first 45 minutes of a game. 31.7% of such Titans plays are successful but do not produce a first down. That’s the highest total in the league, and well above the league average of 21.9%.

The situation on second down may be nearly as bad, and is even worse relative to the league average. The Titans are successful but do not gain a first down on 21.1% of second down plays in the first three quarters. League average is 14.0%, and the Saints are second at 18.1%.  Add them together, and the Titans have such plays on 27.0% of their first and second downs, compared to a league average of 18.5%, and well ahead of the second-place Saints at 23.5%.

Hey, what about the fourth quarter?

The fourth quarter is different. The basics are straightforward: in the first three quarters, 37% of successful first down pass attempts by the Titans result in a first down. In the fourth quarter, 85% do. My guess is this is likely related to the number of passes that come in two minute situations, and you’d see an even clearer trend if I looked to just those at the end of each half. But this post is enough work without me bothering to prove or disprove that.

3. Marcus Mariota has not been good outside of the red zone.

General DVOA note: player stats cannot be separated from the context of the team and particularly the offense. By “Marcus Mariota” in the above, I really mean “Marcus Mariota, throwing to Tajae Sharpe, Delanie Walker, and company, with Mike Mularkey and Terry Robiskie designing the offense and calling the plays, and with DeMarco Murray running the ball, while playing behind the Taylor Lewan-…-Jack Conklin offensive line, paired with Dick LeBeau running a defense with Jurrell Casey and company” but it’s too long to write that out every time.

Mariota did quite well in the red zone last year, posting a DVOA of 49.4%. This year, he has been even better, ranking second in DYAR (behind Drew Brees) and DVOA (behind only Tom Brady among qualifiers). But DVOA rates Mariota as just an average passer overall, even with that fine red zone DVOA. Why?

Simple: Mariota, as good as he’s been in the red zone, has not been good outside the red zone, which makes up 80% of the length of the field. From his goalline to the plus 20, he has posted a DVOA of -13.5%, which ranks 25th among the 32 qualifying quarterbacks. For comparison’s sake, that puts him just ahead of Case Keenum and just behind Ryan Six-picks-trick.

Being good in the red zone is great, but being good in the red zone is not something seems to be particularly consistent.

So what if the Titans aren’t quite as good in the red zone?

I think it’s useful to look at this through the prism of drive stats. The Titans currently rank 16th with 1.92 points per possession while scoring 6.0 points per red zone possession. If they instead scored the league average of 4.9 points per red zone possession, they would score about 0.3 fewer points per possession, which would be around 24th in the league.

4. Marcus Mariota has not been good in the under center pass game.

One of the big questions with Mariota coming out of Oregon was how he would adapt to taking many of his snaps from under center instead of from the shotgun. The answer we got in 2015 was “quite well.” He was actually better under center (1.6% passing DVOA) than he was in shotgun (-18.4%), and that was true under both Ken Whisenhunt and Mike Mularkey (cited numbers season-long). This year, that is not the case.

Among the 32 quarterbacks with 105 passes (the current DVOA QB leaderboard table cutoff), Mariota ranks 30th in both passing DYAR (-23) and DVOA (-16.8%) from under center. That’s … not so good. One of the players behind him is Cam Newton, and Mike Shula has had Cam attempt just 8.2% of his passes from under center this year, while Marcus has attempted 24.1% of his from under center. (The other is Brock Osweiler, whom you may have heard got $72 million over four years and is not playing well.)

5. Marcus Mariota has not been good on first downs.

Mariota ranks last in the league in both DYAR and DVOA (among 32 qualifiers) in first down passing DVOA. That is true even though he has a decent success rate. Turnovers seem like an obvious culprit, and they’re indeed part of the story. But only part of it. Without turnovers, his rank by DVOA jumps from 32nd all the way to 29th (among qualifiers). That’s still not good.

6. The Titans have been significantly better on third down then on first or second downs.

As much as I denigrate third down, third down performance is extremely important. And good news:  led by Mariota, the Titans have been very good on third downs. He ranks fourth in DVOA (among qualifiers) and fifth in DYAR, and the Titans as a whole rank third in offensive DVOA on third down.

The bad news comes in two parts. First, notwithstanding their pretty good success rates on first and second downs, the Titans are not good on third downs because they’re ending up in particularly favorable third down situations. They are in fact almost dead average when it comes to third down situations-basically, a team that was precisely league average would have had two more third-and-mediums (4-6 yards to go) and one less third-and-short (1-3 yards) and one less third-and-long (7+ yards). In terms of average to-go distance, the Titans are pretty much right at league average (7.1 v. average 7.0).

Second, third down performance, especially third-and-long performance, tends to be pretty variable. The 2016 Tennessee Titans are a great example of this. They had 18 third-and-longs against the Vikings, Browns, and Colts, and got 10 conversions, an outstanding performance. They had 18 third-and-longs against the Lions, Raiders, and Dolphins, and got exactly 0 conversions, a quite lousy performance. That’s enough to rank quite highly for the season (currently third), but not enough to make me feel better about the offense.

The Titans currently have the second-biggest difference between their third down DVOA and their offensive DVOA on first and second downs, behind only New England’s unwanted experiment into the effect of quarterback quality on team performance. That gap is more likely to close over the course of the season than it is to increase or stay the same.

Hey, what about the run game?

The run game has been fine. I don’t quibble with DVOA putting the run game 9th. That’s probably about where I would have put it in general, though I admittedly haven’t really studied teams around the league enough to say that with confidence. The puzzle I was trying to solve was about the pass game, and why DVOA and I thought (and still think) different things about it. Also, passing is generally more productive and more variable than running, so more worth looking into even if things were equal, which they weren’t.

So, the Titans are running two offenses?

Eh, not necessarily that much more than most NFL teams do. The league as a whole runs a pass-oriented offense out of shotgun that is somewhat more efficient overall than the run-oriented offense they run from under center.

What about opposing defenses?

DYAR is adjusted for quality of opposing defense; that’s what the “D” stands for, so I haven’t touched on this subject yet.

Even though they opened with the Vikings, FO’s #2-ranked defense, the Titans have faced the league’s easiest schedule of opposing defenses thus far, including the 32nd-ranked Lions, 31st-ranked Colts, 30th-ranked Browns, and 28th-ranked Raiders. The Titans’ offense, both the run game and the pass game, has been worse than it “looks” so far, and is likely to decline going forward as the Titans face more accomplished defenses.

I believe this is particularly a problem for the Titans, as their lack of explosiveness and playmakers means their offense works best against the worst defenses, which tend to have more execution issues.

TL;DR?

DVOA likes consistently successful offenses, which the Titans are. But the Titans have too many short gains. They therefore must consistently and repeatedly execute to move the ball down the field to score points. To do this, they need to be great in high-leverage situations, particularly third downs and the red zone. They have been so far, which is a big reason DVOA likes them so much more than I do. Performance in high leverage situations tends to regress, so the Titans are not likely to be as good in those areas moving forward, plus they have not been as good as they look because of an easy schedule. They are therefore likely to score fewer points going forward, unless they start playing better.

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Written by Tom Gower

October 26, 2016 at 13:44

Posted in Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans 2016 Roster Prediction As Training Camp Opens

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The second in an irregular series of posts about the Tennessee Titans.

For the past eleven seasons, around the start of training camp I have predicted which players the Tennessee Titans would keep when they cut down the roster to 53. Quitting regular team blogging in March was not sufficient to keep me away from that task, so here goes nothing.

The intro, largely cribbed from last year’s attempt at the task:

Each season, the day the Tennessee Titans players report to training camp, I attempt to predict which players they will keep after the cutdown all the way to 53. Some years this goes kind of okay,  while in other years I end up on quixotic quests and stick on them long after it becomes obvious they are indeed quixotic quests. Most years, I’m happy to get 48 of the 53 right at this stage of the game, as the inevitable injuries, surprises, and attempts to be clever that don’t work out happen.

Last year, I got 44 of the 53 players who would be on the roster Week 1. Subsequent personnel moves explained some of those misses, as did not getting the shape of the roster right (though I still maintain keeping 4 WR, 5 TE, and 8 DL was insane and should not have been predicted (or done) by anybody).

To guide me in this exercise, it’s useful to take a look at what the Titans looked like Week 1 of last year in terms of number of players at each position:

QB: 3
RB/FB: 5
TE: 5
WR: 4
OL: 8
DL: 8
LB: 8
DB: 9
ST: 3

 

But that was with Ken Whisenhunt running the offense and Ray Horton (still) running the defense. There’s no guarantee a roster led by Mike Mularkey and Dick LeBeau will look the same. As I mentioned last year, LeBeau has tended to keep more defensive backs than Horton had. Mularkey has his own roster trends that have affected my judgment (the Titans are probably likelier to keep 5 WR than you might think, though I’ll get into that below).

With a new general manager, new head coach, and new defensive coordinator, this year I am probably more likely to be wrong on which specific players the Titans value. I also expect there to be several additions to the roster, to fill some obvious (and maybe not as obvious) currently unfilled needs. I’d be perfectly happy to get 45 players this year.

With that in mind, here’s my 53:

QB (2): Matt Cassel, Marcus Mariota
Analysis: Chalk, chalk. Whatever qualms you may have about Cassel as a backup quarterback, he’s the veteran in camp. It doesn’t make sense to keep a third quarterback.

RB/FB (5): Antonio Andrews, Jalston Fowler (FB), Derrick Henry, Dexter McCluster, DeMarco Murray
Analysis: Four easy names (Fowler, Henry, McCluster, Murray), then the question becomes if they keep a fifth and who it would be. Bishop Sankey would make sense if they want a passing game back, since he filled that role in McCluster’s absence last year. But Murray’s a three-down back and the Titans have praised Henry’s work there. David Cobb would make sense if they wanted a lead back type. But they went out and acquired Murray and Henry this offseason to fill that job. Andrews offers the best mix of versatility in both categories and plays special teams, making him the favorite for the fifth back in my eyes.

WR (5): Dorial Green-Beckham, Andre Johnson, Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Kendall Wright.
Analysis: Anyone outside, or maybe even inside, St. Thomas Sports Park who’s absolutely confident in how the Titans will handle their receivers this season is probably nuts. I’d have to write the full positional analysis to get into all the details, but here’s the basic breakdown:

Reliable but can’t separate: Harry Douglas, Johnson
Known unreliables: Green-Beckham, Justin Hunter, Wright
Offseason acquisitions: Matthews, Sharpe
Likely roster longshots, must beat out other players in camp: Everybody else

I’ve tried parsing this different ways, trying to think of the 46-man active roster, inside, outside, whatever have you, and have made no significant progress on how this is likely to go. A fifth player who’s up on gameday will likely have to play special teams. I don’t know who, aside from maybe Tre McBride (probably the 8th guy), does.

My initial draft of this post had Douglas as the token veteran on the team; when news of the Johnson signing broke 15 minutes before it was scheduled, it was pretty easy for me to make a one-for-one substitution. I think Johnson is mostly done and cannot separate, but Douglas can’t separate either and Johnson is more of an outside receiver. The slot is settled with Wright and Sharpe, and ceteris paribus outside over more of a slot type is a preference the Titans should have had.

TE (4): Anthony Fasano, Craig Stevens, Phillip Supernaw, Delanie Walker
Analysis: Three chalk names, and Supernaw gets one of the (RB5, WR6, TE4, OL9) roster spots. Special teams matters, and they’ve consistently privileged him.

OL (8): Jack Conklin, Ben Jones, Taylor Lewan, Will Poehls, Jeremiah Poutasi, Brian Schwenke, Quinton Spain, Chance Warmack
Analysis: Two areas here, and both have major question marks. At tackle, Lewan and Conklin are set at starter, but who backs them up? Poehls gets my nod here, based on the current roster and his experience, but (a) they could prefer one of the UDFA tackles like Nick Ritcher, (b) they could go with a veteran not on the roster right now for the backup OT spot, and/or (c) Mularkey has kept 9 OL before so with youth plus Lewan’s injury history, it could be Poehls/Ritcher AND a veteran.

Interior offensive line: who and how many do they keep? LG winner, Jones, Warmack, and swing gameday backup are locks. LG winner is penciled in as Spain. The swing gameday backup must be able to play center, so I’m giving that job to Schwenke (over Andy Gallik). I don’t think it makes sense to keep three backup interior OL, and Poutasi’s pedigree, plus experience playing tackle (it was insane to ask him to play RT day one as young as he was) gives him the clear edge over Sebastian Tretola.

I’d be surprised if I don’t get at least one name wrong here.

DL (7): Angelo Blackson, Jurrell Casey, Austin Johnson, DaQuan Jones, Karl Klug, Ropati Pitoitua, Al Woods
Analysis: One of the positions I feel worst about. Blackson, Casey, Johnson, Jones, and Woods are locks. LeBeau hasn’t traditionally placed much value on a 3-tech, so Klug may not be nearly as much of a lock as you think he is. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them keep Pitoitua over him, and I almost did that here. I didn’t keep any UDFAs, but maybe Antwaun Woods has a shot. N.B. LeBeau from 2005-14 kept only 6 DL 7 of 10 seasons, so any body elsewhere could easily come from here.

LB (9): Kevin Dodd, Derrick Morgan, Deiontrez Mount, Brian Orakpo, Nate Palmer, Sean Spence, Aaron Wallace, Avery Williamson, Wesley Woodyard
Analysis: I feel pretty good about seven names here, and Palmer and Wallace get the last two spots. In his recent linebackers article, Jim Wyatt mentioned Palmer’s ability to play inside and out. That could help keep him up on gameday and helped convince me to give him the ILB4 spot where I’d had Justin Staples as a placeholder. Wallace has some athleticism and seems like a good candidate for LeBeau’s defensive academy.

DB (10): Antwon Blake, Kevin Byard, Perrish Cox, Rashad Johnson, Brice McCain, Jason McCourty, Da’Norris Searcy, LeShaun Sims, Daimion Stafford, Blidi Wreh-Wilson
Analysis: I feel pretty good about seven names here-the four safeties in Byard, Johnson, Searcy, and Stafford-and the top three corners (Cox, McCain, McCourty). The other three are just guesses and should not be privileged. Kalan Reed over Blake, or Sims, or Wreh-Wilson? Sure. Instead of six corners and four safeties, a fifth safety like Josh Aubrey, Marqueston Huff, or Curtis Riley? Absolutely a possibility. Cody Riggs at corner? Eh, he may be limited to the slot, and I can’t see him higher than third there with Cox and McCain on the roster. Am I overrating Antwon Blake’s edge because of his scheme familiarity? I’m fine there, because I think other people are underrating that.

If I get two of the three non-locks right, I’m happy.

ST (3): Beau Brinkley, Brett Kern, Ryan Succop
Analysis: Chalk, chalk, chalk. The interesting job is kick returner (McCluster returns punts).

On my roster, not on Paul Kuharsky’s: RB Antonio Andrews, DL Ropati Pitoitua, WR Andre Johnson, OL Will Poehls, OL Jeremiah Poutasi, TE Phillip Supernaw, LB Aaron Wallace, DB Blidi Wreh-Wilson
On Paul’s roster, not on mine: LB Curtis Grant, WR Harry Douglas, WR Justin Hunter, OL Josue Matias, DB Kalan Reed, DB Cody Riggs, RB Bishop Sankey, OL Sebastian Tretola
Huh, that’s more than I would have guessed. But we did both keep 24 offensive players and 26 defensive ones.

Written by Tom Gower

July 29, 2016 at 12:00

Posted in Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans 2016 Draft Preview by Position

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GENERAL NOTE: ICYMI, I blogged at least semi-regularly about the Tennessee Titans at Total Titans starting in the 2007 season until “retiring” at the end of the 2015 League Year in March. Though I am happy not to be doing anything like regular team blogging, I still want to chime in on the Titans from time to time in ways that do not fit in 140-character soundbites. Thus, a couple times a year, I will put up posts here about the Titans. These will probably mostly be longer pieces (1000+ words). This is the first of those. 

One of the staples of my pre-draft coverage at Total Titans was a Titans draft preview by position, including probabilities of selecting a player at each position. Given that I’m only writing one pre-draft post, that seemed comprehensive and detailed enough to be the post to write. So, that it is. Since I will not be writing a separate post on players the Titans had an official visit or private workout with, I will mention the names I have seen the Titans linked to in this post. (I’m not including Senior Bowl or Combine interviews or mere pro day attendance, as I do not consider those nearly as useful signals as visits or private workouts.)

Mandatory mention for this post: the Titans currently hold 9 picks in the 2016 NFL draft. To be as realistic as possible, I wanted the sum of the draft probabilities at each position to add up to 8.0. If the probability at any particular position looks too high to you, well, it probably looks too high to me as well. But to get the total to 8.0, the probabilities all look too high. I know, 8.0 is still short of 9, but (a) it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Titans end up making eight selections, either by moving up in the first round or by trading one of their second- or third-round picks for a future pick, and (b) the sixth and seventh rounds are prime spots for value- and UDFA-related picks where positional need matters much less, so they’re ripe for doubling up on a need position (like Tre McBride last year) or picking a non-need slot (the David Howard pick a few years ago). If things to true to form, the Titans will hit all but one of the positions I have them rated as highly likely to draft while hitting one of the positions I think it much less likely they will draft.

Quarterback
Need at position: Low
Analysis: Marcus Mariota is the starter, and will hopefully be for the next decade-plus. I’m not a huge fan of Matt Cassel as the veteran backup, but an upgrade at veteran backup is something the Titans will not find in the draft (and apparently weren’t interested in in free agency, given they signed Cassel quickly). The Titans won’t want to make a roster spot for a third quarterback.
Draft probability: 1%
Linked players: Kevin Hogan

Running Back
Need at position: Low to moderate
Analysis: From one point of view, the Titans already have a fully loaded backfield for 2016 and don’t need a running back. DeMarco Murray will be the bellcow and play on passing downs, Dexter McCluster is the backup passing game back, David Cobb the backup run game back, and Antonio Andrews can fill either role while also playing teams. On the other hand, Murray may be mostly washed up and you could upgrade the other players in that group with the right player even in the later rounds. But if the right guy isn’t there, they won’t draft a back.
Draft probability: 30%
Linked players: Kenneth Dixon, Keenan Reynolds

Wide Receiver
Need at position: Moderate
Analysis: The Titans have the receivers they need to line up and play in 2016. As I noted before my retirement, Mike Mularkey offenses generally have not featured many pass catchers, and between Dorial Green-Beckham, Kendall Wright, Rishard Matthews, and depth parts, the Titans do not absolutely have to take a wide receiver. But Wright is a free agent after this year, they may view Matthews as more of a role receiver, Green-Beckham is a huge unknown long-term, etc., so the Titans could see this as a significant need for 2017 and beyond. Pre-draft smoke, emanating Jon Robinson, Mike Keith, and Jim Wyatt, has led me to revise my estimate upward significantly. I doubt it happens in the first round, but it probably does in the second or third.
Draft probability: 90%
Linked players: Leonte Carroo, Jared Dangerfield, Braxton Miller, Michael Thomas

Tight End
Need at position: Moderate
Analysis: Like wide receiver, not a significant 2016 need, but a need nonetheless because Anthony Fasano, Craig Stevens, and Delanie Walker will all be 32 years old when the regular season begins. This probability would be higher if the tight end class was better regarded.
Draft probability: 60%
Linked players: Stephen Anderson, Austin Hooper, Nick Vannett

Offensive Tackle
Need at position: High
Analysis: Taylor Lewan is locked in as the starter at one tackle position. Byron Bell, who returned on a one-year deal of the sort a non-premium backup would draw in a league in desperate need of quality offensive tackle play, is currently penciled in as the other. Will Poehls, who has spent two seasons on the practice squad, is currently the top backup. I may currently be fourth on the Titans’ depth chart at offensive tackle. The need to line up and play in 2016, plus the lack of quality options available in the free agent market, tells me offensive tackle is the overwhelming favorite for the Titans’ first selection on Thursday, and it would not be a surprise at all to me if the Titans come out of the draft with two offensive tackles.
Draft probability: 99% of one, 50% of a second
Linked players: Caleb Benenoch (OG?), Shon Coleman, Jack Conklin, Clay DeBord, Taylor Decker, German Ifedi (OG?), Alex Lewis, Jason Spriggs, Ronnie Stanley, Zach Sterup, Laremy Tunsil

Offensive Guard/Center
Need at position: Moderate-low
Analysis: Ben Jones is the center. Chance Warmack is the right guard. Between Jeremiah Poutasi, Quinton Spain, and probably Bell (assuming an early OT pick), the Titans can find a workable solution at left guard. A good solution at left guard would be nice, as would a developmental center, or more protection against Warmack leaving after 2016. But with all the answers and potential answers here and the needs elsewhere, this is an area I don’t think the Titans end up addressing.
Draft probability: 40%
Linked players: G Joe Dahl (OT?)

Defensive Line
Need at position: Moderate-high
Analysis: The Titans have lost two players (Sammie Hill and Mike Martin) and have not added any. One of the six that remains (Ropati Pitoitua) barely played last year. One is really good (Jurrell Casey), the rest of the group is mostly undistinguished. Defensive line is a strength of the draft, an area Robinson has suggested multiple times could be addressed, and the Titans have been linked to many defensive linemen. I don’t see it in the first round, but probably in the second round.
Draft probability: 95%
Linked players: DeForest Buckner, Jonathan Bullard, Kenny Clark, Joel Heath, D.J. Reader, Lawrence Thomas, Adolphus Washington, Jonathan Woodard

Outside Linebacker
Need at position: High
Analysis: Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo are quality starters. At least one of them has missed significant time in three of the past four seasons. The Titans’ defense collapsed when Morgan went out last year. The Titans have not done anything yet to improve their depth at OLB. To not improve their depth at OLB would be (a) Ruston Webster-like malign neglect, (b) a demonstration of incredible faith in Dick LeBeau’s powers of behind-the-scenes development, or (c) both (a) and (b). The Titans have been linked to multiple potential OLB in the pre-draft process. Probably not in the first round, but a good bet in the second or third rounds.
Draft probability: 85%
Linked players: Joey Bosa, Kamalei Correa, Shaq Lawson, Yannick Ngakoue, Emmanuel Ogbah

Inside Linebacker
Need at position: Moderate
Analysis: Wesley Woodyard is in the last year of his deal. Sean Spence is signed to a one-year deal. Avery Williamson isn’t a star. Nobody else is more than a backup and special teams player. It’s not an acute need, but it is a need. Injury wild card Myles Jack might be too tempting to pass up in the first, but otherwise more likely an option in the third round or later.
Draft probability: 80%
Linked players: Jatavis Brown, Deion Jones, Darron Lee, Antonio Morrison

Cornerback
Need at position: Moderate-high?
Analysis: In terms of being able to line up and play, the Titans are in better shape at corner than they’ve been since at least 2013. Between Perrish Cox, Brice McCain, and Jason McCourty, they have three veteran corners, two of whom can play in the slot. Antwon Blake has scheme and LeBeau-specific experience. Blidi Wreh-Wilson has some NFL experience. LeBeau may be high on Cody Riggs. On the other hand, Cox and McCain may be best as just slot players, McCourty is a bit of a question mark after missing most of last year with injuries, and depth is a major question mark (true at corner for basically every team). I see corner as a “like to draft” position; The Reporters Who Cover the Titans see it as a priority (Paul Kuharsky saying I was underrating CB as a 2016 need; John Glennon Tennessean article expecting a CB draft pick in first/second round). I’d frankly be shocked if the Titans took a corner in the first round, but who knows.
Draft probability: 80%
Linked players: Mackensie Alexander, Eli Apple, Kendall Fuller, Xavien Howard, Tavon Young

Safety
Need at position: Moderate-high
Analysis: It’s a good safety class. Rashad Johnson gives them cover for 2016 so a draft pick will not be required to step in immediately. Johnson is on a one-year deal. I don’t see a second starting safety on the roster for 2017 (Da’Norris Searcy is a given). I’m expecting this to happen in the second round, but if there’s a run on the position or too much value elsewhere it doesn’t have to happen.
Draft probability: 90%
Linked players: Vonn Bell, Kevin Byard, Jayron Kearse, Miles Killebrew, Keanu Neal, Tyvis Powell, Jalen Ramsey

UPDATE (2016-04-27, 1230 CT): Added CB Eli Apple and OT Taylor Decker as linked players.

Written by Tom Gower

April 26, 2016 at 18:46

Posted in Tennessee Titans

What I’ve Been Reading (Football and Not)

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Once upon a time, I read books and wrote reviews of them. Book review posts were staples in the Before I Only Wrote About Football blogging days, and were my most regular non-link posts in the early days of this site. Earlier this decade, I wrote reviews-many short, plenty longer-of every book I finished for a blog that nobody else can read. Yet, for one reason or another, I eventually stopped doing that. I switched from full reviews of each football book to capsule reviews in a quarterly post. I started out writing the quarterly post at the end of the quarter. Then a couple weeks after the end of the quarter. By now, it’s been nine months since I posted here about anything I read (and it’s been several years since I’ve written a book review for The Locked Site).

I know I’m quite likely never going to go back to writing about football books the way, but I do want to try to return to the quarterly recaps. After so much time, though, I just want to get everything up to date. Thankfully, I didn’t read that much the past nine months by my standards. In my last book review post, I mentioned the second quarter of 2015 was my least productive reading quarter (in terms of numbers of books finished) since the first quarter of 2010. Third quarter 2015 was my least productive third quarter since 2009 and fourth quarter 2015 was my least productive fourth quarter since 2009 (I note by quarters because my reading has tended to follow seasonal patterns; since I started keeping track by month in 2004, I finish on average 20% more books in July and August than you’d expect, while I finish 26% fewer in June). For the year, I finished 79 books, my lowest total since 2009, and the 9 football books I finished was the lowest total there since 2006. (By comparison, I averaged 117 books per year in 2011-14, so 79 books was for me a 33% drop.) We’ll see what the rest of 2016 brings. In 2010, I finished more books in April than I did in the entire first quarter, but I surely won’t replicate that this year.

Anyway, time for the nominal purpose of this post, telling you what I did actually read. Football first, then non-football, my 2015 favorites, and a look at the unread list.

Football Books-2015
Once again, I was involved in writing a book but failed to talk about it here. Yes, Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the annual tome previewing the NFL and college football seasons from us at Football Outsiders came out. I wrote the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Tennessee Titans chapters. One day I should really talk about my FOA writing process and give a behind-the-scenes look at what I wrote about, why I wrote about what I did, how I wrote the chapters, and some stuff like that. Today will not be that day.

I mentioned in that previous book review post Chris Brown sent me a review copy of his second book, The Art of Smart Football. It’s Chris’s work, so of course you should read it. Like his first book The Essential Smart Football, it’s a collection of essays, most previously published. For me, it wasn’t as essential as Essential, because more of it was familiar to me. Some of the Grantland (R.I.P.) pieces also missed the graphics a digital product can have that a physical book cannot.

When the NFL made all-22 accessible to the public in 2011, one lament/request I heard from fellow outsider fans with an analytical bent was they really didn’t know what they were looking at, and it would be great to have somebody knowledgeable explain to them what was really going on. Alex Kirby’s Every Play Revealed 2 gives you that kind of guide for the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl. It’s probably best read in conjunction with a re-watch of the game itself. I ended up not having the time to do that, alas, and just read the review PDF Alex sent me. He’s done similar books for other games, and they’re probably worth picking up if you really want to study that game. Now if we can just get a consortium of people to do it for every other NFL game…

Thursday evening, I was listening to Bruce Feldman (mostly) talk with Kevin Sumlin about RPOs and the one-back clinic, so it’s fitting that tonight I finally get to writing about Bart Wright’s Football Revolution: The Rise of the Spread Offense and How It Transformed College Football, a history of the spread offense that includes the influence of Dennis Erickson and said one-back clinic. Not a coaching book, but a lot of good interview work and a book I wished I’d read soon after it came out (in the fall of 2013). Recommended.

I wanted more than I got from Brady vs. Manning: The Untold Story of the Rivalry That Transformed the NFL by Gary Myers.

I was a big fan of John U. Bacon’s Three and Out, and though about Michigan thought that book could be read quite profitably by people with no connection to the Wolverines or Ann Arbor. Endzone, I thought, was a book that appeals much more to the UM devotee and wasn’t as broadly interesting.

Football Books-2016
Writing a biography about a living subject who doesn’t cooperate with you is an interesting task. The living subject means that there are contemporaries around, many of whom are probably willing to speak, plus contemporaneous records are generally extant and not too difficult to locate. But you’re still in some ways missing the most important voice. Keith Dunnavant’s Montana is fine for all that, though I’m reminded of my comment on his Bart Starr biography, America’s Quarterback, that was kind of the inflection point for when I got bored with football books.

I wasn’t as big a fan as everybody else seems to be of Adam Lazarus’s Best of Rivals on the Joe Montana-Steve Young quarterback battle when I read that a few years ago. I was a much bigger fan of his Hail to the Redskins on Joe Gibbs’ great Washington teams, plus there’s a great Gibbs quote I want to use in a longer piece I’m still in the planning stages on. Recommended.

NFL Confidential: True Confessions from the Gutter of Football by Shmavid Shmolk, er, “Johnny Anonymous” was a suitably breezy and entertaining book by a player about a team-season, in the instant case David Molk on the Eagles’ 2014. The veneer of anonymity is paper-thin; the travails of the third-string center who ends up playing probably would’ve been enough to identify Molk with even minor work, a Monday off day is a give-away for Chip Kelly and the Eagles, and picking out Jason Peters and DeSean Jackson, among others, was pretty easy. Ball Four it ain’t, but it’s in line with Slow Getting Up as far as recent NFL player memoirs go. The better question is what would a book like Ball Four look like these days? I don’t know, really, but has anybody attempted to write a book like Dryden’s The Game since that came out 35 years ago? That’s a niche I’d like to see filled.

As long as you’re not expecting a full biography or anything more than a quick airplane read (which I mention because this was, in fact, where I read it), Bill Polian’s The Game Plan delivers what you might want. But while I bet he could’ve, Polian wasn’t interested in writing a great book on the NFL.

Non-Football-Fiction-2015
I finished Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale out of sheer cussedness to see if I would enjoy it any more, if it made any more sense, if it was any better. Nope, and a couple pages at the very end of academic satire were not enough to carry the rest of the work for me. Very strongly anti-recommended to people who share my tastes (see infra).

Jo Walton’s The Just City was an interesting novel about an attempt to set up Plato’s city in the “real” world with people from various stages of history. I forgot if it was in this book or the sequel The Philosopher Kings that Walton had a character note they didn’t get many people from the Enlightenment or later (beyond the POV female character from Victorian England), (a) for which I credit Walton and (b) #TeamEnlightenment. Being science fiction, this is of course a trilogy, and I plan to get the third volume from the library when it comes out as well.

A friend of mine recommended Sean McMullen’s trilogy beginning with Souls in the Great Machine after I asked for books like Anathem in my last book review post. There’s an interesting premise here, which carries the first book, and an interesting change of scenery does the sequel The Miocene Arrow well, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the concluding volume Eyes of the Calculor (a 2016 finish, but it’s not worth breaking up the review for that). Recommended for genre fans.

I did read non-spec fic fiction in the final two quarters of 2015, but not much of it and nothing to recommend.

Non-Football-Fiction-2016
I was hoping I’d finish Michel Houellebecq’s Submission before the year ended so I could just declare it my favorite fiction read of 2015. But I didn’t, and if it had really deserved its place there, I probably would have. I didn’t enjoy it was much as I did The Map and the Territory.

I suspect I would have enjoyed Anton Chekhov’s The Cherry Orchard more as a dramatic performance than as a book.

Some actual non-genre novels I liked Don Winslow’s The Power of the Dog and its sequel, The Cartel, about the Mexican drug wars from the mid-1970’s onward with a DEA agent protagonist. James Ellroy-esque in how characters overwhelmingly range from shades of gray to black, but much more narrative and much more readable, and epic in scope.

But if you want genre fiction, I did enjoy Daniel Abraham’s The Dagger and the Coin series. Five books, concluded satisfactorily with the just-released The Spider’s War. And am I the only one who sees the outlines of an alt-universe Anakin Skywalker in Geder?

Non-Football-Non-Fiction-2015
Based on the reaction of my then-6-year-old niece, the start of Chapter 12 of Ian Toll’s Six Frigates on the early U.S. Navy is one of the funniest things ever put to print. She seemed particularly amused by Toll’s use of the word “private,” describing a letter sent by President James Madison. More … mature readers will find it a well-done history of the time period, capably conveying both the on-land and at-sea machinations, something not often done in naval histories.

I was unsurprised to see Ashlee Vance’s Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future make many best of 2015 lists. I’m personally hesitant to put biographies of people who seem like they’re still in the prime of their careers there, simply because I want to be sure the best books of a year to still be really good five years later. But anybody who writes a Musk biography in 2020 or 2050 will have to engage in some way with Vance’s work.

Economist books: I enjoyed both Alvin Roth’s Who Gets What – and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Design, focusing on his work on auction designs, and Richard Thaler’s more specifically a memoir Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. Greg Ip’s Foolproof: Why Safety Can Be Dangerous and How Danger Makes Us Safe I didn’t love as much as others seemed to (I seem to recall seeing it on more than its share of best of 2015 books), but it’s still solid.

Phillip T. Hoffamn’s Why Did Europe Conquer the World? was a book I’d been waiting on for a while, since discovering Hoffman’s work into seventeenth century France years ago. It was good, but wasn’t as much of an addition to the literature as I hoped it would be. I’m not quite sure I’d go as far as R.Albin’s review, but nor would I say he’s wrong.

I read and enjoyed but didn’t love David Hackett Fischer’s Washington’s Crossing about a decade ago, but had put off reading his Paul Revere’s Ride for some time for no very good reason. Like Crossing, it does a fine job of putting the epochal historical event sometimes shrouded in myth and mystery into time-specific context. It shouldn’t be your first book on the American Revolution, but it can profitably be read with just a basic knowledge of the American Revolution and probably can profitably be read by those with a great interest in popular histories of the American Revolution.

The Russians are coming: Bill Browder’s Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man’s Fight for Justice was a nice mix of personal memoir of doing business in Eastern Europe and Russia in the collapse of Soviet hegemony and then in Putin’s Russia, where the life of enemies is cheap. David Hoffman’s The Billion Dollar Spy: A True Story of Cold War Espionage and Betrayal has its own Moscow betrayal and killing but it set a quarter-century or so earlier, as Adolf Tolkachev spies for the U.S. and then is betrayed and executed.

The problem with a book like North Korea Confidential: Private Markets, Fashion Trends, Prison Camps, Dissentors and Defectors is it’s difficult to judge just how good a job Daniel Tudor and James Pearson did of giving us a glimpse into the normally-forbidden and highly-restricted Hermit Kingdom. The available evidence seems to be as good a job as one can. If you can trust it, it’s quite an interesting look at a very different world. If you can’t, then, of course, it’s worthless.

I didn’t enjoy Matt Ridley’s The Evolution of Everything as much as I did his The Rational Optimist; the two books aren’t the same, but I recall a broad thematic similarity and Optimist seems like a better sell. David Starkey’s Magna Carta was a thin book, but did a good job of putting the 1215 document in more context. After Dan Jones’ The Wars of the Roses, I didn’t get as much out of Michael Jones’ Bosworth 1485: The Battle That Transformed England, and probably wouldn’t have finished it had it been longer. As a fan of the novels of Frederick Forsyth, I enjoyed his memoir The Outsider: My Life in Intrigue; his take on Biafra remains quite interesting, though I lack any context for it (or any detail of the conflict in general).

Non-Football-Non-Fiction-2016
I’ve only finished 7 non-fiction books this year, and 4 of those were about football. Fortunately, two of those other three are worth discussing.

I’ve previously noted I greatly enjoyed Randall Munroe’s xkcd comic and his earlier What If?, where he answers absurd hypothetical questions seriously. His latest book is Thing Explainer: Complicated Stuff in Simple Words, where he explains (with the aid of illustrations) complicated things using just the one thousand most common words. It’s a clever concept, I believe first expressed in his Up Goer Five comic. In book format, though, my overwhelming impression was that it’s just a clever concept and fine details are normally expressed in specific technical jargon because that’s the best, clearest, and most economical way of doing so.

The nature of my project here precludes me from going into too much detail on Martin Gurri’s The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium. But this 2014 work is a superb analysis of the basic fault lines in American (and other) society, as demonstrated in the current Presidential election campaign and many other things. Not exactly a casual read, but worth working through and considering. Quite likely to end up on my best of 2016 list, and would have topped the best of 2015 list (infra). For a glimpse of Gurri’s thought and analysis, see this recent post of his on D***** T****.

Best of 2015
Brief overview notes, also noted in my past end-of-year reviews: I try to read a balance of fiction and non-fiction. For my fiction reads, I tend to prefer plot-heavy narratives. Beyond minimums, literary quality is a plus but not a priority. Genre is ok. For the most part, the fiction I read suffices and clears my palate for other reads, with few of my choices reaching or even aspiring to particularly high heights. Little stands out among my 2015 fiction reads. The most memorable for me was Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky. I repeat my earlier warnings, that this is the most Not For Everybody, Your Mileage May Vary thing I’ve ever mentioned on here and if you start it, and you’re not enjoying it by chapter 8-10, give up. The Walton books were interesting, but I’ll wait to judge those until the final volume comes out. Cixin Liu’s The Three-Body Problem was interesting, but (a) it’s the first volume in a trilogy, (b) I didn’t make any headway into the sequel when I checked it out from the library, and (c) series in progress (at least the English translation thereof). I wish I had non-genre recommendations, but I don’t.

For the third straight year, picking my favorite non-fiction read is quite a challenge, and this feels like an even bigger challenge than it was the past two years. Looking over the list, the standouts in my memory include James Whitman’s The Verdict of Battle (though I am somewhat loath to recommend this more broadly), Laura Hillenbrand’s Unbroken, plus the aforementioned Paul Revere’s Ride and Six Frigates. But I’d put all of them a notch below my 2014 favorites.

Aside from, of course, Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, my favorite football reads of the year were Wright’s aforementioned Football Revolution and, idiosyncratic in some sense it may be, Ran Henry’s Spurrier. I finished entirely too many books I disenjoyed in 2015, including The Handmaid’s Tale and Ernest Cline’s Armada, which I finished out of curiosity to see if it really was that awful. It was (following my Dan Brown parallel, if Ready Player One was his DaVinci CodeArmada is more like his Inferno). I gave up on at least eight books in 2015, including both The Remains of the Day and The Buried Giant by Kazuo Ishiguro.

The Things to Read
Over the next month, I’ll be spending a great deal of time preparing for the 2016 NFL draft. I’ve already acquired Optimum Scouting’s draft guide and Nolan Nawrocki’s NFL Draft 2016 Preview, plus depending on when I get this post up may have already received my pre-ordered copy of Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Dane Brugler‘s forthcoming draft guide is also on the must-buy list, and of course I’ll be supplementing all of those with Lance Zierlein’s draft profiles for NFL.com. Anything else I end up getting, I’ll note on Twitter, and if you want to send me your draft guide, just hit me up.

My book buying tends to go in spurts. Lately, I’ve neglected that I’ve been in a long-lived reading rut, and my acquisitions in the past nine months that I have not yet read include, among others, Dan Drezner’s Theories of International Politics and Zombies, Timothy Brook’s Vermeer’s Hat, Tonio Andrade’s The Gunpowder Age, Monte Burke’s Saban, Ron Chernow’s Washington: A Life, Andrew Roberts’ Napoleon: A Life, and Ben Austro’s So You Think You Know Football?, titles like Alex Kirby’s Speed Kills, Peter H. Wilson’s The Thirty Years War, and many more sit waiting to be read while forthcoming books like the conclusion to Walton’s trilogy and James Gleick’s Time Travel (due out in September and pre-ordered) await in the distance.

As always, War and Peace sits on my end table waiting for me to finally get around to reading it, you should still read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow ($9.07 for the paperback as of right now!) if you have not yet done so, and, of course, de gustibus non est disputandum.

Written by Tom Gower

April 1, 2016 at 12:09

My 2016 Total Titans Archive

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This will be an archive of my and only my Total Titans posts, like the one I did for 2015 and previous years. It will also include links to my appearances on other sites to talk Titans, including my answers to other people’s questions and any audio hits.

SEPTEMBER 2016
2016-09-30: Not a post, but I answered questions for Steph Stradley to preview Titans-Texans
2016-09-29: Not a post, but I appeared on The Two Tone Crew podcast to talk the Titans’ offensive struggles, recap Raiders-Titans, and preview Titans-Texans (direct link: mp3 audio)

APRIL 2016
2016-04-13: Not a post, but I answered questions about Zach Brown for Buffalo Wins

MARCH 2016
2016-03-09: Not a post, but I appeared on Going For Two with Zach and Sharona to talk the Titans, giving up team blogging, and the first official day of free agency (YouTube link)
2016-03-09: Good-Bye to All That
2016-03-08: Too early thoughts on the Titans and the draft
2016-03-08: Titans to trade for DeMarco Murray
2016-03-07: Thoughts on the Titans and free agency
2016-03-04: The holes on the Titans’ depth chart heading into free agency
2016-03-02: Titans add CB Brice McCain
2016-03-01: Notes on the positional analyses

FEBRUARY 2016
2016-02-26: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ST
2016-02-25: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: S
2016-02-24: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: CB
2016-02-23: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ILB
2016-02-22: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OLB
2016-02-19: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: DL
2016-02-18: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: C
2016-02-17: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: G
2016-02-16: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OT
2016-02-15: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: TE
2016-02-12: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: WR
2016-02-11: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: FB
2016-02-10: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: RB
2016-02-09: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: QB
2016-02-05: On the Titans’ 2016 coaching staff
2016-02-02: Why did a Titans team I thought would go 6-10 go 3-13?

JANUARY 2016
2016-01-31: On Jon Robinson, Mike Mularkey, and all that
2016-01-17: Titans conclude head coaching “search” by retaining Mike Mularkey
2016-01-15: Titans announce Jon Robinson as new general manager
2016-01-07: Not a post, but I appeared on SI’s On the Clock podcast to talk about the Titans’ options with the first overall pick
2016-01-05: Tennessee Titans picks in 2016 NFL draft
2016-01-04: Titans part with Ruston Webster
2016-01-04: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 17 Snap Report
2016-01-03: Titans clinch #1 pick by losing to Colts, 30-24, after comeback fails
2016-01-03: Titans-Colts inactives, gameday notes of uncaring
2016-01-02: On Ruston Webster and athletic testing

UPDATE (2017-02-21 1350 CT): Updated all these links to fix them after Total Titans website change after I quit narfed them all.

Written by Tom Gower

March 11, 2016 at 08:54

Posted in Total Titans

My 2015 Total Titans Archive

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PROGRAMMING NOTE: What I’ve read lately, football and not, for the last two quarters of 2015, plus my favorites if I can manage to pick some out, coming whenever I bother to write it.

(EDIT 2017-08-15 2240 CT: Updated all these links that got narfed after Total Titans moved.) This page is largely for my personal purposes. It’s less important than it’s been in past years, since Total Titans is largely just my work these days. But it’s more convenient for me to have all my posts on a single past, and I also link the interviews I do for other sites here as well. I want to clean out my bookmarks, thus creating this post now even though the year is done.

DECEMBER 2015
2015-12-28: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 16 Snap Report
2015-12-27: Titans avoid shutout, only lose to Texans 34-6
2015-12-27: Titans-Texans inactives, gameday notes
2015-12-21: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 15 Snap Report
2015-12-20: Mariota injured as Patriots expectedly dominate Titans
2015-12-20: Titans-Patriots inactives, gameday thread
2015-12-X: Not a post, but I appeared on Patriots Central Radio to preview Titans-Patriots
2015-12-14: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 14 Snap Report
2015-12-13: Mariota catches TD to take headlines off Titans’ dismal performance in 30-8 loss to Jets
2015-12-13: Titans-Jets inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-12-07: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 13 Snap Report
2015-12-06: Home losing streak ends as Titans top Jaguars 42-39 in wild affair
2015-12-06: Titans-Jaguars inactives, gameday notes

NOVEMBER 2015
2015-11-29: Titans come back in fourth, can’t hold on, fall to Raiders, 24-21
2015-11-29: Titans-Raiders inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-20: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 11 Snap Report
2015-11-19: Another bad fourth quarter costs Titans as they fall to Jaguars, 19-13
2015-11-19: Titans-Jaguars inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-16: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 10 Snap Report
2015-11-15: Rough going for offense as Titans fall to Panthers, 27-10
2015-11-15: Titans-panthers inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-09: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 9 Snap Report
2015-11-08: Titans top Saints in overtime thriller, 34-28
2015-11-08: Titans-Saints inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-04: Ken Whisenhunt was fired, so now what?
2015-11-03: Ken Whisenhunt fired
2015-11-02: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 8 Snap Report
2015-11-01: Titans out-inept Texans, fall 20-6
2015-11-01: Titans-Texans inactives, gameday notes

OCTOBER 2015
2015-10-30: Not a post, but I answered questions for Steph Stradley to preview Titans-Texans
2015-10-29: Steph Stradley answers Total Titans’ questions about the Texans
2015-10-26: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 7 Snap Report
2015-10-25: Defense strong, but offense stumbles as Titans fall to Falcons 10-7
2015-10-25: Titans-Falcons inactives, gameday notes
2015-10-19: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 6 Snap Report
2015-10-18: Titans home woes continue with 38-10 rout by Dolphins
2015-10-18: Titans-Dolphins inactives, gameday thread
2015-10-12: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 5 Snap Report
2015-10-11: Titans don’t convert yards to points, falls to Bills 14-13
2015-10-11: Titans-Bills inactives, pregame notes
2015-10-09: Buffalo Wins answers Total Titans’ questions about the Bills
2015-10-09: Not a post, but I answered questions for Joe of Buffalo Wins to preview Titans-Bills

SEPTEMBER 2015
2015-09-28: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 3 Snap Report
2015-09-27: Titans recover from early deficit, blow late lead, fail to tie in 35-33 loss to Colts
2015-09-27: Titans-Colts inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-09-25: Nate Dunlevy answers Total Titans’ questions about the Colts
2015-09-25: Not a post, but I answered questions for Nate Dunlevy to preview Titans-Colts
2015-09-21: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 2 Snap Report
2015-09-20: Titans sputter through 28-14 loss to Browns
2015-09-20: Titans-Browns inactives, preview notes
2015-09-14: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 1 Snap Report
2015-09-13: Mariota sparkles as Titans rout Buccaneers, 42-14
2015-09-13: On the Tennessee Titans’ 2015 season
2015-09-09: More on Terrance West
2015-09-07: 2015 Tennessee Titans 53-man roster analysis
2015-09-05: Titans make cuts to reach 53-man roster limit
2015-09-04: Titans 2015 roster cutdown thread-Friday
2015-09-04: Mariota TD pass, no apparent major injuries highlight Titans fourth preseason game
2015-09-03: Tennessee Titans fourth preseason game preview
2015-09-02: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: ST
2015-09-01: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: S

AUGUST 2015
2015-08-31: Tennessee Titans third preseason game review
2015-08-29: Titans look bad while losing badly to Chiefs
2015-08-28: Tennessee Titans third preseason game preview
2015-08-27: Titans 53-man roster prediction at mid-preseason
2015-08-25: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: CB
2015-08-23: In control from start to finish, Titans top Rams, 27-14
2015-08-21: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: ILB
2015-08-20: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: OLB
2015-08-18: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: DL
2015-08-17: Tennessee Titans first preseason game review
2015-08-14: Two turnovers, one TD for Mariota as Falcons top Titans, 31-24
2015-08-14: Tennessee Titans first preseason game preview
2015-08-13: Thinking about the “skill position” mix and the gameday 46
2015-08-12: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: C
2015-08-11: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: G
2015-08-10: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: OT
2015-08-07: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: TE
2015-08-06: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: WR
2015-08-05: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: FB
2015-08-04: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: RB
2015-08-03: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: QB

JULY 2015
2015-07-30: Titans 53-man roster prediction as training camp opens
2015-07-28: More on Marcus Mariota
2015-07-27: Breaking down the Titans’ 2015 UDFA signings

MAY 2015
2015-05-05: Recapping the Tennessee Titans’ 2015 draft picks
2015-05-03: Titans conclude draft with OLB Deiontrez Mount, C Andy Gallik, WR Tre McBride
2015-05-02: Titans select RB David Cobb in fifth round
2015-05-02: Titans add DL Angelo Blackson, FB Jalston Fowler in fourth round
2015-05-01: Titans select OT Jeremiah Poutasi in third round
2015-05-01: Titans trade back, select Dorial Green-Beckham
2015-05-01: Titans day 2 draft outlook

APRIL 2015
2015-04-30: Titans stand pat at #2, take Marcus Mariota
2015-04-30: My 2015 seven-round Titans mock
2015-04-30: Titans draft preview by position
2015-04-29: Breaking down the Titans’ (reported) pre-draft visits
2015-04-29: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ST
2015-04-28: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: S
2015-04-27: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: CB
2015-04-27: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ILB
2015-04-24: Titans add WR Hakeem Nicks
2015-04-24: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OLB
2015-04-21: Tennessee Titans 2015 schedule announced
2015-04-14: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: DL
2015-04-13: Titans preseason schedule announced
2015-04-02: Titans notes-Stingily, Harris, Stevens

MARCH 2015
2015-03-16: Titans sign CB Perrish Cox
2015-03-14: Titans re-sign Klug, Morgan, Succop, add Fasano, Orakpo in busy day
2015-03-12: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: C
2015-03-11: Titans sign WR Harry Douglas, S Da’Norris Searcy
2015-03-10: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: G
2015-03-09: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OT
2015-03-09: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: TE
2015-03-06: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: WR
2015-03-05: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: FB

FEBRUARY 2015
2015-02-10: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: RB
2015-02-09: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: QB
2015-02-06: Titans release RT Michael Oher
2015-02-04: Titans hire Dick LeBeau

JANUARY 2015
2015-01-27: How the Titans targeted their receivers in 2014
2015-01-21: My predicted Titans RB usage against the Titans’ actual running back usage
2015-01-20: Field position and the Titans defense in 2014
2015-01-19: Field position and the Titans offense in 2014
2015-01-16: 2014 Tennessee Titans Snap Report: Defense
2015-01-13: 2014 Tennessee Titans Snap Report: Offense
2015-01-09: 2014 Tennessee Titans Biggest Surprise: Avery Williamson
2015-01-08: 2014 Tennessee Titans Biggest Disappointment: Ken Whisenhunt
2015-01-07: 2014 Tennessee Titans Rookie of the Year: Avery Williamson
2015-01-06: 2014 Tennessee Titans Defensive MVP: Jurrell Casey
2015-01-05: 2014 Tennessee Titans Offensive MVP: Delanie Walker
2015-01-01: Tennessee Titans picks in 2015 NFL draft

Written by Tom Gower

January 2, 2016 at 21:40

Posted in Total Titans

What I’ve Been Reading (Football and Not)

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May and June are annually Football Outsiders Almanac writing season, so after April is devoted to draft preparation, I don’t tend to do much football reading in the second calendar quarter of any given year. Most years I read only one or two books about football during that span, reserving my reading time for books about other subjects. Most quarters, I write separate posts about my football and my non-football reading. For the second quarter, and especially considering it’s the evening of the 27th of July and I’m just getting around to writing a quarterly recap, I’ll be combining my normal separate quarterly recaps.

2Q 2015 was no exception to my normal football reading trends. The only football book I read was On the Clock: The Story of the NFL Draft by Barry Wilner and Ken Rappoport. My favorite book on the draft is Pete Williams’ The DraftOn the Clock did not come anywhere close to challenging Williams’ work for that crown, even though there is room for a work to surpass it.

For various reasons, 2Q 2015 was an unproductive quarter reading-wise even on the non-football front. I only finished 15 books, my smallest total since the first quarter of 2010. Additionally, two-thirds of those were fiction, where I trend to prefer highly narrative reads. Only two of the ten novels I read are worth mentioning, and I loved neither. Dan Simmons, who has written some books I’ve greatly enjoyed (Hyperion) and some I haven’t (Drood), ran an excerpt from the novel that became The Fifth Heart on his website a few years ago, and I found it intriguing. The final book, I found those with an interest in Henry James and/or Sherlock Holmes would probably like it much better. My James reading experience was brief, abortive, and non-recent, while I’ve never been a Holmes fan. More clever than enjoyable, though if you’re a fan of James and/or Holmes, you may find it more enjoyable than I did.

The other work of fiction is Neal Stephenson’s Seveneves. This is a difficult book for me to review. Stephenson is probably my favorite (living?) novelist. I have previously said that the world is comprised of two groups of people, those who have read and enjoyed Cryptonomicon and those with whom it is probably not worth having a casual conversation. I now like Anathem almost as much, and more in some ways. I’m currently (very, very slowly) re-reading his massive The Baroque Cycle. Reviewing Seveneves as a Stephenson hardcore, it’s my least favorite book of his in the past twenty years (I wasn’t a big fan of Snow Crash, which other people love, and it’s been too long since I’ve read Zodiac). Frankly, it seemed like a bit of a waste; a much less talented, less imaginative writer than Stephenson could have written a version of Seveneves that was nearly as good, which I would not have said about his other books (seriously, who else could have written Anathem and made it good? I want to read this person). That said, even inferior, not nearly as funny as normal Stephenson is still much better than standard fare SF, so I liked it even though I found it greatly disappointing. Recommended to people who have already read better books and still need more to read, perhaps?

My non-fiction reading was nearly as lame as my fiction reading. Adam Zamoyski’s Rites of Peace: The Fall of Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna is mostly about the diplomatic maneuverings leading up to the fall and the Congress. The most interesting part is the great social swirl around the Congress, something you get absolutely no sense of in the twentieth century. Were there parties at Yalta, at Potsdam, surrounding the formation of NATO, around the Rio or Kyoto Earth summits? Did the principals interact there and do any business? Was anybody sleeping with anybody else, who was also or had previously or would go on to sleep with somebody else? These people are generally absent from current histories (I haven’t read, say, MacMillan’s Paris 1919), which could be a reflection of the transition from hereditary aristocracy and monarchies to largely non-hereditary and/or democratically-elected leadership and a tendency toward shorter, more directed meetings with more frequent trips home rather than very extended, open-ended meetings where most people are around for more or less the duration. I didn’t love it enough to recommend it more generally, but I do recommend it if you have an interest in the subject. Good chapter length, too, which is often a problem in books of this sort.

I’ve loved some of Bruce Schneier’s past books. Beyond Fear and Liars and Outliers were some of my favorite reads in the years I read them. I was more skeptical about the premise of Data and Goliath. Sadly, my fears were mostly founded. The first half is a useful overview of the current age of mass surveillance; the second half is more political in nature, along the familiar lines of “what the world should be like if everybody adopted the author’s preferred policy tradeoffs.” As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve generally read more than enough of that kind of book. Intelligently discussing the counterarguments and overcoming them will make that kind of book worthwhile anyway, but Schneier acknowledges the counterarguments and didn’t handle them (Bret Stephens’ America in Retreat manages the former, but doesn’t succeed at the latter task, and I wouldn’t have bothered to finish it if it was longer than it was).

Stephen Weinberg is a distinguished physicist. My past fondness for Paul Johnson (haven’t read any of his books lately) indicates I have a fondness, or at least an openness toward whiggish history. But I still did not really enjoy To Explain the World: The Discovery of Modern Science, Weinberg’s almost antiseptic take on moments in scientific discovery from the Greeks through Newton, at which point modern science had been discovered and Weinberg didn’t have to make any declarations that might annoy his friends. Not awful, but not as interesting as I’d hoped.

With my work on Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 pretty much done, I’m about ready to start reading about football again. Chris Brown sent me a review copy of his new book The Art of Smart Football, Alex Kirby sent me a copy of his book Every Play Revealed 2 breaking down the Pats-Seahawks Super Bowl, I’ve begun Bart Wright’s Football Revolution, there’s a whole new crop of football books coming out soon, and, hey, I’ll get to read what everybody else said in FOA2015 as well.

You should still read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow if you have not already done so.

Written by Tom Gower

July 27, 2015 at 22:52