Tennessee Titans 2023 Draft Preview by Position

The latest of my occasional posts about the Tennessee Titans.

One of the staples of my pre-draft coverage for years has been a draft preview by position, including a breakdown of what the Titans have at each position, what they might be looking for, and a probability the Titans draft a player (or two) at that position. See here for what this exercise looked like last year.

As of right now, the evening before the draft, the Titans currently hold six selections in the 2023 NFL draft. One of those selections is their natural seventh-round pick, 228th overall. My regular disclaimer in this post has included that selections that late in the draft (generally, anything outside the first 200 picks) should be considered a head start on undrafted free agency, ripe for doubling up on a need position or locking in a player at a position that may not be much of a need. Consequently, I don’t think it’s useful to consider those picks in calculating draft probabilities. It’s the earlier picks that are more likely to be used on players with a role to play on the 53-man roster. Because what I’m doing here is trying to figure out what the Titans think they want to draft, I decided to base my draft probabilities on the five picks the Titans hold in the first six rounds, where they’re most likely looking for key contributors for 2023 and beyond.

I say pretty much every year this is an exercise in (hopefully educated) guesswork. While Mike Vrabel returns as head coach, this will be the first draft Ran Carthon runs as Titans general manager. Further, he has not been a general manager before. Trying to figure out what he’s likely to do based on his past actions as general manager gives us basically no useful information for predicting what he’s likely to do. Jon Robinson had some tendencies that became apparent through his tenure, like valuing college production more than athleticism and putting a lot of emphasis on specific postseason all-star games (notably the Senior Bowl in 2020 and the East-West Shrine Game in 2022), but we’re waiting to see what those will be for Carthon.

One thing I’ve included almost every year I’ve done this, and that seems likely to continue to be important under Carthon, is a list of players linked to the Titans by a pre-draft visit to the team’s facility (compilation via Titans Report). Standard disclaimer: these are compiled based on media reports, and should not be relied on as either complete or completely accurate. But if they bring in six players at one position and one at another, it’s probably (supporting) information they’re probably more interested in the position where they’ve brought in a bunch of players. It seemed like Robinson also put particular value on players who did private workouts; post-COVID, it seems like there may be fewer of those happening, or at least we may be getting less comprehensive information on those when they do happen. This is definitely something where I’ll be paying attention to what prospects say after they get drafted, when we’ll get the most complete information on what sort of pre-draft contract they had with the Titans.

Repeated note: as much as I can, this post attempts to describe what the Titans might do based on how I think the Titans might think. Carthon and Vrabel will be setting the direction and making the decisions for the team, so I try to think like they will think. What I would do if I were in charge of the Titans is (a) in some cases quite different and (b) completely irrelevant in terms of predicting what the Titans will do.

That said, on with the show.

Quarterback
Need at position: Low-moderate
Analysis: Ryan Tannehill is the starter. Malik Willis was a third-round pick last year and could be the backup. But Tannehill’s contract expires after this season, and Willis face-planted when the Titans needed him to play functionally in Tannehill’s absence last season. The Titans could easily use the 11th pick on their next starting quarterback, or even trade up from #11. But this isn’t 2015, when they had to draft a quarterback with their first-round pick. And Willis last year is what you get with mid-round quarterbacks. It could very easily happen in the first, but if it doesn’t, it should happen at all.
Visitors: Hendon Hooker (Tennessee), Will Levis (Kentucky), Anthony Richardson (Florida)
Draft probability: 20%

Running Back
Need at position: Moderate?
Analysis: Derrick Henry is the starter. He’s not going anywhere via trade unless the Titans eat a bunch of his salary. The Titans played Dontrell Hilliard as their third-down back last year; they let him hit free agency. Hassan Haskins was a fourth-round pick last year, and spent time as the pass game back after Hilliard went to injured reserve. If the Titans liked Haskins that much in that role, they could have used him over Hilliard. Henry’s out of contract after this season. This frankly feels like a position where the Titans could go a bunch of different directions and justify almost anything they wanted to justify. But if they like Haskins at least a little bit, or want to bring back Hilliard or another similarly modestly-priced veteran for a high-trust pass protection role, they don’t need to take a back at all. With more picks, this would get a higher probability. But given all the other areas of need, I kept moving this probability down.
Visitors: Tyjae Spears (Tulane)
Draft probability: 30%

Wide Receiver
Need at position: High
Analysis: The Titans’ current top four at wide receiver is Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Kyle Philips. Yes, that list has three names on it. Yes, I’ve used this gimmick multiple times before. Yes, including wide receiver last year. And Burks is a rookie, NWI is NWI, and Philips was a fifth-rounder who played 64 snaps as a rookie and spent most of the season injured reserve. The Titans could really, really, really use a player capable of playing a major, starter-type role as a rookie, and could easily justify a second pick as a receiver. But after taking two receivers last year, are there enough developmental reps to justify two players even if the depth chart could use them? If I had my druthers, they’d add a rookie and a veteran to the top four. But yeah, the depth chart could justify drafting two receivers. And one of those guys needs to come in the first three rounds.
Visitors: Tank Dell (Houston), Zay Flowers (Boston College), Quentin Johnston (TCU), Jonathan Mingo (Ole Miss)
Draft probability: 90% of one, 20% of a second

Tight End
Need at position: High
Analysis: The Titans’ current top three… oh, forget it, I just used that gimmick. They have pure blocker Trevon Wesco and H-back/move Chig Okonkwo, a fourth-round pick last year. They could really use a player capable of serving as a combo/Y tight end to replace Austin Hooper, lost to free agency. Okonkwo doesn’t have the size to be that player on the line. This is another good and deep tight end class. Probably on day two given they don’t have a fourth-round pick.
Visitors: Payne Durham (Purdue), Tucker Kraft (San Diego State)
Draft probability: 90%

Offensive Tackle
Offensive Guard/Center
Need at position: Moderate? + moderate?
Analysis: There are five starters here. Grouping them together is bad practice. But like last year, the Titans probably are looking at four starters between Andre Dillard, Aaron Brewer at center, Daniel Brunskill, and Nicholas Petit-Frere (at right tackle, I hope). Dillard was drafted as a tackle, but has also played left guard before. If the Titans want to prioritize finding a left tackle, like at #11, they’d play Dillard at guard. If they want to go elsewhere at #11, they could draft a guard like Cody Mauck in the second round and leave Dillard at tackle. And, yeah, if they had to play a game Thursday morning, Jamarco Jones is probably starting at guard (don’t count on Dillon Radunz given his ACL injury). This feels like a place where they’re adding a starter as a priority, so in the first three rounds, but with some flexibility on exactly what position that will be. And if the Titans had more picks, I’d have the draft probability of a second offensive lineman, like a tackle early and developmental interior guy, or vice versa, higher. They’ve been sniffing around some of the late-round developmental athletes, so that’s probably my favorite for the seventh-round pick.
Visitors: Anthony Bradford (OG, LSU), Jaelyn Duncan (OT, Maryland), Joey Fisher (OT, Shepherd), Broderick Jones (OT, Georgia), Carter Warren (OT, Pitt), Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee)
Draft probability: 60% (OT) + 50% (OG/C)

Defensive Line
Need at position: Low
Analysis: Jeffery Simmons got paid. Teair Tart is coming back. Denico Autry should return to being more of an inside guy if the depth at outside linebacker holds up. Yeah, they could use another body after losing Mario Edwards (if you think of him as a DL). But given all their other needs, I can’t think of this as a priority.
Visitors: Gervon Dexter (Florida), Devonnsha Maxwell (Chattanooga)
Draft probability: 10%

Outside Linebacker
Need at position: Low
Analysis: Harold Landry’s coming back from his torn ACL. Rashad Weaver isn’t a star, or even an ideal starter, but he wasn’t a total liability in 640 snaps last year. Arden Key was a significant free agent signing from the Jaguars. Yeah, this is position where you could always use a guy. But getting down to 5.0 is BRUTAL this year, and this is one of the positions that I kept moving down because it feels more like a “like to draft, if the right player is there” than a “need to draft.”
Visitors: Junior Fehoko (San Jose State, ALT: DL/Autry), Keion White (Georgia Tech, ALT: DL/Autry)
Draft probability: 10%

Inside Linebacker
Need at position: Moderate-high
Analysis: So what do the Titans think they need here? Monty Rice is a third-round pick entering his third season; ideally, that’s a guy who’d be a starter. Carthon brought Azeez Al-Shair along with him from San Francisco as another potential starter. But who knows how much they trust Rice, Al-Shair isn’t a long-term player, and it feels like they could really use a pure coverage player after losing David Long in free agency. Given their other needs, I don’t think this is likely to be a priority, but adding a situational player with a later pick is a definite possibility.
Visitors: Mohamoud Diabate (Utah), Marte Mapu (Sacramento State, ALT: SAF)
Draft probability: 50%

Cornerback
Need at position: Moderate?
Analysis: Some positions as a need is about known holes on the depth chart; see wide receiver. Some positions as a need are more about what the Titans think about the players they have on the roster. Kristian Fulton was hurt almost all of his rookie season and missed plenty of time in year three; he’s been solid when on the field, but if Mike Vrabel’s annoyance with injury issues is as bad as we think, he’s not a player they want to count on. Elijah Molden played only 82 snaps last year because of injury. Roger McCreary was a member of the “much better in September than December” club as a rookie, though he kept getting trotted out there. Free agent import Sean Murphy-Bunting is on a one-year deal. Tre Avery was a UDFA. The Titans could decide to make do with what they have here, but this is also another position they could choose to make a priority at any point in the draft where their evaluation of the available players says it could be a good idea.
Visitors: Deonte Banks (Maryland), Julius Brents (Kansas State), Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State)
Draft probability: 40%

Safety
Need at position: Moderate?
Analysis: Ran Carthon didn’t say a lot at his pre-draft press conference, but one thing he did do was confirm he’d asked Kevin Byard to take a pay cut. The former Blue Raider declined, but that’s probably a sign the Titans are thinking about moving on from him sooner rather than later (bold prediction: he won’t be on the 2024 Titans at his currently-scheduled base salary of $13.6 million). And Amani Hooker was another member of the injury brigade last year. And the only other pure safety listed on the roster is Mike Brown, who was inactive for the season finale in his only game on the roster last year. With two starters in place, I don’t think this is a priority, but a pick on day three is easy to justify.
Visitors: Quan Martin (Illinois)
Draft probability: 30%

Some Macro-Level Thoughts

1. As mentioned in the CB section: some draft picks are about players on the roster. A pick of a running back is about Henry and/or Haskins. A safety pick might be about Byard. An earlier than expected center pick might be about Aaron Brewer. The Titans have so many holes at so many different positions I keep prioritizing the known and obvious holes over this type of pick, but this is definitely a thing that happens.
2. We don’t know what kind of time horizon Carthon is working with. It was striking to me that his introductory press conferences didn’t feature one word about how good he expected the 2023 Titans to be. But if winning games in 2023 isn’t at all a priority, Tannehill, Henry, and Byard would all be cut (now that the Jets have acquired Aaron Rodgers, I don’t know who’d be in the trade market for Tannehill, even at a reasonable price for a high-end Tier 3 starter). Jon Robinson was largely focused on immediate needs, but that wasn’t a thing I figured out until his first draft pretty much went immediate needs from biggest on down. Given where the Titans are (not serious contenders in 2023 even with the three veterans), it’d make sense if Carthon prioritized players who wouldn’t be immediate contributors more than J-Rob did.
3. Special teams matters. A third safety would probably be counted on as a key special teams player. Ditto a linebacker pick (in addition to free agency addition Ben Niemann). If they don’t want Philips returning punts, then return ability could be a bonus for any wide receiver or defensive back.
4. One of my goals for this exercise each year is to stack positional priorities. By that measure, it ended up about like this:

WR1 + TE – – OT – OG/C + LB – CB – RB + SAF – QB + WR2 – DL + OLB

The implication of that stacking is the Titans are likely to prioritize a wide receiver, a tight end, and probably an offensive lineman (considering OT and OG/C together) as their highest needs, would like a linebacker, a cornerback, and either a running back or safety as their next priorities, and picks at other positions are more likely to be players of particular value on their board. I hate all these numbers, because getting down to 5.0 was very difficult this year. I feel really good about the top three needs, much less so about other positions. RB is particularly difficult-the draft is likely to be deep at the position, and they could find a use for a player if they wanted to, but they don’t have to and what they need could be filled by a cheap veteran instead. OLB in particular is another position where I keep wanting to up the probability. But I’m locked in to 5.0 as the total, and I’d have to lower some other positional probability just to do that, and I don’t want to. Feel free to make your own adjustments, as you see fit, but they must be net-zero.
5. Beyond the normal online mechanical mocks, I did a 32-person mock without making any trades myself, and ended up with this:
#11 OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
#42 TE Luke Musgrave, Oregon State
#72 WR Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss
#147 LB Mohamoud Diabate, Utah
#186 C Ricky Stromberg, Arkansas
#228 CB Art Green, Houston
In hindsight, I should have prioritized a cover linebacker like Ivan Pace or Dee Winters over Diabate, and Green’s a guy I have almost no feeling for beyond knowing that he’s a fast CB and the Titans have shown an interest in some fast CBs. But I’d sign up for those first three picks right now, no question.
6. My baseline expectation is that the Titans will draft all but one of the positions I think they are likely to draft, while hitting one of the positions I think they are less likely to draft. That tends to be about how it goes. But we’ll see how it goes, especially with that whole QB question hanging over the draft. If that was a priority, though, I think the Titans would have emphasized that more in their pre-draft messaging. As usual, though, I’m sitting on my couch trying to figure out what people who don’t think like I think will do rather than telling you how it will be.