Tennessee Titans 2024 Draft Preview by Position

The latest of my occasional posts about the Tennessee Titans.

One of the staples of my pre-draft coverage for years has been a draft preview by position, including a breakdown of what the Titans have at each position, what they might be looking for, and a probability the Titans draft a player (or two) at that position. See here for what this exercise looked like last year.

As of right now, the evening before the draft, the Titans currently hold seven selections in the 2024 NFL draft. Two of those selections are in the seventh round, Philadelphia’s acquired in the trade for Ugo Amadi and Kansas City’s acquired in the L’Jarius Sneed deal. My regular disclaimer in this post has included that selections that late in the draft (generally, anything outside the first 200 picks) should be considered a head start on undrafted free agency, ripe for doubling up on a need position or locking in a player at a position that may not be much of a need. Consequently, I don’t think it’s useful to consider those picks in calculating draft probabilities. It’s the earlier picks that are more likely to be used on players with a role to play on the 53-man roster. Because what I’m doing here is trying to figure out what the Titans think they want to draft, I decided to base my draft probabilities on the five picks the Titans hold in the first six rounds, where they’re most likely looking for key contributors for 2024 and beyond.

I say pretty much every year this is an exercise in (hopefully educated) guesswork. While Ran Carthon was general manager last year, in this year’s pre-draft press conference, he described this as basically his first draft as general manager. That’s the kind of statement it’s easy to read too much into, but he might have a legitimate point there. Further, this is Brian Callahan’s first draft as Titans head coach, and for that matter, his first draft as a head coach anywhere. We can try to project Carthon, Cally, and Chad Brinker (who kicked off that pre-draft presser and came from Green Bay, which definitely has specific physical thresholds they try to rely on) based on players they’ve been around in the past, but that may another example of reading too much into things.

One thing I’ve included almost every year I’ve done this, and that seems likely to continue to be important under Carthon, is a list of players linked to the Titans by a pre-draft visit to the team’s facility. Standard disclaimer: these are compiled based on media reports, and should not be relied on as either complete or completely accurate. But if they bring in six players at one position and one at another, it’s probably (supporting) information they’re probably more interested in the position where they’ve brought in a bunch of players. As the Peter Skoronski pick without a visit showed, though, a player getting a visit is not a requirement for the Titans to make them a high pick.

Repeated note: as much as I can, this post attempts to describe what the Titans might do based on how I think the Titans might think. Carthon and Callahan will be setting the direction and making the decisions for the team, so I try to think like they will think. What I would do if I were in charge of the Titans is (a) in some cases quite different and (b) completely irrelevant in terms of predicting what the Titans will do.

That said, on with the show.

Quarterback
Need at position: Low
Analysis: Will Levis is the starter. Mason Rudolph is the backup. The Titans have a ton of needs at other positions. If you think the Titans should want to upgrade on Will Levis, (a) they’ve given no public sign that they’re interested in such a thing and (b) even at #7, getting the fourth- or fifth-best quarterback in this class doesn’t (to me) make much sense. If they want to spend a 7th on a camp arm, sure, whatever, but I can’t see it happening with one of the picks that matters.
Visitors: none
Draft probability: 1%

Running Back
Need at position: Low-moderate
Analysis: Tyjae Spears will play a fair bit. Tony Pollard will play a fair bit after the Titans signed the former Cowboy in free agency to a significant contract. But Brian Callahan did indicate he’d like a back that’s more of a stylistic complement to those two, and the Titans have brought in a couple backs they’d probably have to take in the middle rounds. With as many other needs as the Titans have, though, it’s hard to make this a priority.
Visitors: Rasheen Ali (Marshall), MarShawn Lloyd (USC)
Draft probability: 19%

Wide Receiver
Need at position: High
Analysis: The Titans’ third receiver right now looks like a battle between Treylon Burks, whom OC Nick Holz noted in his presser earlier this month will get whatever he shows he deserves, Kyle Philips, offseason superstar who in two years hasn’t even played half as many snaps as Burks played last year, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Enter Brian Callahan from Cincinnati, where the Bengals ran an awful lot of three receiver sets. Of course, those Bengals teams generally had three good receivers, but see below about tight ends and the possibilities of 12 personnel. Last year was a good receiver draft, and the Titans didn’t hit the position until Colton Dowell in the seventh round. They can’t avoid the match of need and availability for a second consecutive season, can they? Obviously a possibility at any point in the draft, and with more picks I’d do what I did last year and give them the chance of taking a second.
Visitors: Xavier Legette (South Carolina), Malik Nabers (LSU), Roman Wilson (Michigan)
Draft probability: 90%

Tight End
Need at position: High
Analysis: This one is pretty simple. Callahan mentioned earlier in the month that he’d want five or six tight ends to take into training camp. The Titans currently have three tight ends on the roster. When I did my roster moves analysis, I highlighted tight end as one of the positions where they lost a major contributor and didn’t add anybody. Yes, there are still veteran tight ends on the market. But given where they are vs. where they want to be, the Titans could easily both draft a tight end and add a veteran. Given the other needs, I don’t see this as a priority, but if the right guy is there on Day Three, absolutely.
Visitors: none
Draft probability: 50%

Offensive Tackle
Need at position: High
Analysis: If the Titans had to line up and play tomorrow, I guess Jaelyn Duncan would be the starting left tackle. Based on what we saw last season, that’s not an acceptable option unless he’s made a massive offseason jump. Callahan praised the depth of the offensive line class and the ability to get contributors late (by which he meant not at #7, necessarily?), as long as you can pick the right players. But given the pedigree of offensive tackles and how incredibly annoying it’s been to watch the last two seasons of Titans offense with bad left tackle play, it feels like a lock in the first two rounds. And given that right tackle is Duncan or Nicholas Petit-Frere, a different Titans team with different needs and a deeper collection of draft pick could easily justify a pick there. As with receiver, though, I’m not giving them a chance of taking a second with these five picks and this many needs.
Visitors: Joe Alt (Notre Dame), Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma), J.C. Latham (Alabama), Jordan Morgan (Arizona)
Draft probability: 95%

Offensive Guard/Center
Need at position: Low
Analysis: Left guard is locked in with Peter Skoronski. Center is locked in with Lloyd Cushenberry. Daniel Brunskill returns and could start at right guard again. Free agent import Saahdiq Charles might have a chance to displace Brunskill. Again, a different Titans team could look for an option other than dumpster diving and justify a mid-round pick on an offensive guard, and a pick here shouldn’t be a shock. But there’s not that much need here, and there are big needs elsewhere.
Visitors: none (Fuaga, Guyton, Latham, Morgan all ALT: OG)
Draft probability: 10%

Defensive Line
Need at position: Moderate to high
Analysis: Jeffery Simmons is good, but he’s also missed time four of the five years he’s been in the NFL. Sebastian Joseph-Day is a veteran, but it’s hard to find a third player on the roster you (or at least I) feel good about. Not the biggest priority, but a position where you can justify a pick anywhere outside the first round.
Visitors: McKinnley Jackson (Texas A&M), T’Vondre Sweat (Texas)
Draft probability: 50%

Outside Linebacker
Need at position: Moderate to high
Analysis: Harold Landry had more sack production last year than I thought he might coming off a torn ACL. But the lesson of last year might have been that Arden Key is best suited as a complementary third rusher than a player suited for a big every-down role. And another lesson of last year is that last year’s coaching staff (at least) didn’t see Rashad Weaver as a player who deserved to play more snaps, even considering the above. If you absolutely had to, you could probably get by with those three as your basic rotation. But you probably wouldn’t if you had options. Like defensive line, not the biggest priority, but a position where you can justify a pick anywhere outside the first round.
Visitiors: Jalyx Houston (Houston Christian)
Draft probability: 50%

Inside linebacker
Need at position: Moderate-high
Analysis: The Titans have one inside linebacker they like in Kenneth Murray. They tried playing last year without a second starting-caliber inside linebacker, and I for one didn’t enjoy the results when they played with two inside linebackers on the field anyway. On the other hand, this is generally regarded as a terrible draft for inside linebackers. Like running back, the position may be somewhat devalued, but teams still want to add them to play roles and fill out their roster, and the lack of depth at the position may see the ones who are there get forced up the draft by need. If the Titans decide they should be one of those teams, a possibility as early as the second round. On the other hand, if they don’t let need dictate the board, it may not happen at all.
Visitors: Junior Colson (Michigan)
Draft probability: 70%

Cornerback
Need at position: Low?
Analysis: The Titans have three cornerbacks they really like between L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, and Roger McCreary. On the other hand, McCreary is much better as a slot than he is on the outside, it’s hard to go through a full season using only three corners, and the fourth corner is Tre Avery? Eric Garror? Theoretical Caleb Farley? Bringing in draft prospects even after adding Sneed and Awuzie feels like a sign the Titans know they could use another player here. Not a priority given the other needs, but a definite possibility on day three.
Visitors: Kris Abrams-Draine (Mizzou), Terrion Arnold (Alabama), Jarvis Brownlee (Louisville), Caelen Carson (Wake Forest), Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
Draft probability: 30%

Safety
Need at position: Moderate to high
Analysis: I highlighted safety when I wrote about every Titans roster move as a position where they lost significant contributors (basically the non-Amani Hooker starter) and haven’t added anybody. The Titans do still have cap space, and there are still starter-type veteran safeties available, and the emanations and penumbras still suggest a match between A and B is likely to happen after the draft. But if you draft a player you feel is capable of starting, that doesn’t have to happen. Even if that player isn’t ready to start this year, Hooker hasn’t been able to stay healthy and it would be easy to cut him next offseason if you have a replacement in hand. Not a priority given the other needs and the ability to improve the position other than in the draft, but a definite possibility on day three.
Visitors: none
Draft probability: 30%

Some Macro-Level Thoughts

1. Some draft picks are about players on the roster. I make this point every year, even though I don’t see much room for this kind of pick this year. The Titans have so many holes at so many different positions I keep prioritizing the known and obvious holes over this type of pick, but this is definitely a thing that happens.
2. We don’t know what kind of time horizon Carthon is working with. As I wrote, the Sneed trade suggested a need to win in 2024, but the pre-draft press conference suggested that this won’t be J-Rob-esque taking the biggest current season needs and pretty much drafting off that list.
3. Special teams matters. A safety or linebacker might be as much a special teams player as a defensive contributor. Ditto a tight end on offense, especially given the new kickoff format. Do they have a returner they like on the roster, or would that be a potential bonus point for a wide receiver?
4. One of my goals for this exercise each year is to stack positional priorities. By that measure, it ended up about like this:
   WR + OT — LB — TE + DL + OLB — CB + SAF – RB – OG/C – QB

   The implication of that stacking is the Titans are likely to particularly prioritize a wide receiver and an offensive tackle, would really like to draft a linebacker, and could use a tight end, a defensive lineman, and an outside linebacker. That’s already six positions when the Titans only have five picks of note. Unless the Titans acquire an extra pick or three, it will be impossible for them to address all of what I think they see as their biggest needs. That’s true even if they ignore the other positions where they could justify a draft pick. I said this last year, but getting down to 5.0 was very difficult this year. I feel really good about the top two being huge needs, but that doesn’t require any special insight. While writing up this post, I’ve revised each of the top three defensive positions, increasing LB and lowering DL and OLB. Was I right to do so? I don’t know, and might change my mind back in the morning before publishing this post. Corner and safety in particular both feel too low. I’m locked into 5.0 as the total, and I’d have to lower some other positional probability to do that, and whatever I’d change already feels too low. Feel free to make your own adjustments, as you see fit, but they must be net-zero.

5. Beyond the normal online mechanical mocks, I did a 32-person mock without making any trades myself, and ended up with this:
   #7 OT Ola Fashanu, Penn State
   #38 DL Darius Robinson, Mizzou
   #106 RB MarShawn Lloyd, USC
   #146 WR Malik Washington, Virginia
   #182 TE Tip Reiman, Illinois
   #227 SAF Jaylon Carlies, Missouri
   #242 DL Khristian Boyd, Northern Iowa
   #252 CB Storm Duck, Louisville
   Based on my current thinking, the Titans might be more likely to go with Taliese Fuaga with Joe Alt off the board (Rome Odunze was also available). Lloyd is not a pick I would make, but the visit and Callahan’s desire at the position tells me the Titans might, and would probably have to take him there. One of the things doing this mock and the mechanical mocks has told me is the Titans shouldn’t be locked into any single conception of how the draft might unfold and should be prepared to adjust which position they take where based on who is available. That’s kind of a banal point, but I’ve done other mock drafts where I draft a receiver at #38 and the first three players on Day Three all play defense. With so many needs, the Titans could prioritize value over position and still get players who’ll play a role for them. (Procedural note: for ease of administration, we “locked” the draft from future NFL transactions before the Titans traded #227 to the Browns for Leroy Watson.)
6. One general note on this year’s draft class: the issue of age. With Brinker’s analytics-influenced background and Sarah Bailey, the Titans will probably be well aware that it’s more impressive to be good at a younger age, and this is a draft with a ton of overage players. I didn’t make it a repeated theme here, because this post isn’t focused on specific prospects I may or may not have watched in any detail. This is probably more of a focus for players early in the draft, and I wouldn’t overrate this idea-Fuaga being 8 months older than Fashanu probably shouldn’t matter that much. That Malik Washington turns 24 in October isn’t a reason to not draft him at all, but it might be a reason to draft him later or to prioritize a similarly-graded prospect over him (TE example: Dane Brugler’s TE6 Ben Sinnott is over three years younger than his TE7 Tanner McLachlan).
7. My baseline expectation is that the Titans will draft all but one of the positions I think they are likely to draft, while hitting one of the positions I think they are less likely to draft. That tends to be about how it goes. But we’ll see how it goes. As usual, I’m sitting on my couch trying to figure out what people who don’t think like I think will do rather than telling you how it will be.