Reading and Thinking Football

Football, including books thereon and idiosyncratic thinking thereabout

Tennessee Titans 2016 Draft Preview by Position

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GENERAL NOTE: ICYMI, I blogged at least semi-regularly about the Tennessee Titans at Total Titans starting in the 2007 season until “retiring” at the end of the 2015 League Year in March. Though I am happy not to be doing anything like regular team blogging, I still want to chime in on the Titans from time to time in ways that do not fit in 140-character soundbites. Thus, a couple times a year, I will put up posts here about the Titans. These will probably mostly be longer pieces (1000+ words). This is the first of those. 

One of the staples of my pre-draft coverage at Total Titans was a Titans draft preview by position, including probabilities of selecting a player at each position. Given that I’m only writing one pre-draft post, that seemed comprehensive and detailed enough to be the post to write. So, that it is. Since I will not be writing a separate post on players the Titans had an official visit or private workout with, I will mention the names I have seen the Titans linked to in this post. (I’m not including Senior Bowl or Combine interviews or mere pro day attendance, as I do not consider those nearly as useful signals as visits or private workouts.)

Mandatory mention for this post: the Titans currently hold 9 picks in the 2016 NFL draft. To be as realistic as possible, I wanted the sum of the draft probabilities at each position to add up to 8.0. If the probability at any particular position looks too high to you, well, it probably looks too high to me as well. But to get the total to 8.0, the probabilities all look too high. I know, 8.0 is still short of 9, but (a) it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Titans end up making eight selections, either by moving up in the first round or by trading one of their second- or third-round picks for a future pick, and (b) the sixth and seventh rounds are prime spots for value- and UDFA-related picks where positional need matters much less, so they’re ripe for doubling up on a need position (like Tre McBride last year) or picking a non-need slot (the David Howard pick a few years ago). If things to true to form, the Titans will hit all but one of the positions I have them rated as highly likely to draft while hitting one of the positions I think it much less likely they will draft.

Need at position: Low
Analysis: Marcus Mariota is the starter, and will hopefully be for the next decade-plus. I’m not a huge fan of Matt Cassel as the veteran backup, but an upgrade at veteran backup is something the Titans will not find in the draft (and apparently weren’t interested in in free agency, given they signed Cassel quickly). The Titans won’t want to make a roster spot for a third quarterback.
Draft probability: 1%
Linked players: Kevin Hogan

Running Back
Need at position: Low to moderate
Analysis: From one point of view, the Titans already have a fully loaded backfield for 2016 and don’t need a running back. DeMarco Murray will be the bellcow and play on passing downs, Dexter McCluster is the backup passing game back, David Cobb the backup run game back, and Antonio Andrews can fill either role while also playing teams. On the other hand, Murray may be mostly washed up and you could upgrade the other players in that group with the right player even in the later rounds. But if the right guy isn’t there, they won’t draft a back.
Draft probability: 30%
Linked players: Kenneth Dixon, Keenan Reynolds

Wide Receiver
Need at position: Moderate
Analysis: The Titans have the receivers they need to line up and play in 2016. As I noted before my retirement, Mike Mularkey offenses generally have not featured many pass catchers, and between Dorial Green-Beckham, Kendall Wright, Rishard Matthews, and depth parts, the Titans do not absolutely have to take a wide receiver. But Wright is a free agent after this year, they may view Matthews as more of a role receiver, Green-Beckham is a huge unknown long-term, etc., so the Titans could see this as a significant need for 2017 and beyond. Pre-draft smoke, emanating Jon Robinson, Mike Keith, and Jim Wyatt, has led me to revise my estimate upward significantly. I doubt it happens in the first round, but it probably does in the second or third.
Draft probability: 90%
Linked players: Leonte Carroo, Jared Dangerfield, Braxton Miller, Michael Thomas

Tight End
Need at position: Moderate
Analysis: Like wide receiver, not a significant 2016 need, but a need nonetheless because Anthony Fasano, Craig Stevens, and Delanie Walker will all be 32 years old when the regular season begins. This probability would be higher if the tight end class was better regarded.
Draft probability: 60%
Linked players: Stephen Anderson, Austin Hooper, Nick Vannett

Offensive Tackle
Need at position: High
Analysis: Taylor Lewan is locked in as the starter at one tackle position. Byron Bell, who returned on a one-year deal of the sort a non-premium backup would draw in a league in desperate need of quality offensive tackle play, is currently penciled in as the other. Will Poehls, who has spent two seasons on the practice squad, is currently the top backup. I may currently be fourth on the Titans’ depth chart at offensive tackle. The need to line up and play in 2016, plus the lack of quality options available in the free agent market, tells me offensive tackle is the overwhelming favorite for the Titans’ first selection on Thursday, and it would not be a surprise at all to me if the Titans come out of the draft with two offensive tackles.
Draft probability: 99% of one, 50% of a second
Linked players: Caleb Benenoch (OG?), Shon Coleman, Jack Conklin, Clay DeBord, Taylor Decker, German Ifedi (OG?), Alex Lewis, Jason Spriggs, Ronnie Stanley, Zach Sterup, Laremy Tunsil

Offensive Guard/Center
Need at position: Moderate-low
Analysis: Ben Jones is the center. Chance Warmack is the right guard. Between Jeremiah Poutasi, Quinton Spain, and probably Bell (assuming an early OT pick), the Titans can find a workable solution at left guard. A good solution at left guard would be nice, as would a developmental center, or more protection against Warmack leaving after 2016. But with all the answers and potential answers here and the needs elsewhere, this is an area I don’t think the Titans end up addressing.
Draft probability: 40%
Linked players: G Joe Dahl (OT?)

Defensive Line
Need at position: Moderate-high
Analysis: The Titans have lost two players (Sammie Hill and Mike Martin) and have not added any. One of the six that remains (Ropati Pitoitua) barely played last year. One is really good (Jurrell Casey), the rest of the group is mostly undistinguished. Defensive line is a strength of the draft, an area Robinson has suggested multiple times could be addressed, and the Titans have been linked to many defensive linemen. I don’t see it in the first round, but probably in the second round.
Draft probability: 95%
Linked players: DeForest Buckner, Jonathan Bullard, Kenny Clark, Joel Heath, D.J. Reader, Lawrence Thomas, Adolphus Washington, Jonathan Woodard

Outside Linebacker
Need at position: High
Analysis: Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo are quality starters. At least one of them has missed significant time in three of the past four seasons. The Titans’ defense collapsed when Morgan went out last year. The Titans have not done anything yet to improve their depth at OLB. To not improve their depth at OLB would be (a) Ruston Webster-like malign neglect, (b) a demonstration of incredible faith in Dick LeBeau’s powers of behind-the-scenes development, or (c) both (a) and (b). The Titans have been linked to multiple potential OLB in the pre-draft process. Probably not in the first round, but a good bet in the second or third rounds.
Draft probability: 85%
Linked players: Joey Bosa, Kamalei Correa, Shaq Lawson, Yannick Ngakoue, Emmanuel Ogbah

Inside Linebacker
Need at position: Moderate
Analysis: Wesley Woodyard is in the last year of his deal. Sean Spence is signed to a one-year deal. Avery Williamson isn’t a star. Nobody else is more than a backup and special teams player. It’s not an acute need, but it is a need. Injury wild card Myles Jack might be too tempting to pass up in the first, but otherwise more likely an option in the third round or later.
Draft probability: 80%
Linked players: Jatavis Brown, Deion Jones, Darron Lee, Antonio Morrison

Need at position: Moderate-high?
Analysis: In terms of being able to line up and play, the Titans are in better shape at corner than they’ve been since at least 2013. Between Perrish Cox, Brice McCain, and Jason McCourty, they have three veteran corners, two of whom can play in the slot. Antwon Blake has scheme and LeBeau-specific experience. Blidi Wreh-Wilson has some NFL experience. LeBeau may be high on Cody Riggs. On the other hand, Cox and McCain may be best as just slot players, McCourty is a bit of a question mark after missing most of last year with injuries, and depth is a major question mark (true at corner for basically every team). I see corner as a “like to draft” position; The Reporters Who Cover the Titans see it as a priority (Paul Kuharsky saying I was underrating CB as a 2016 need; John Glennon Tennessean article expecting a CB draft pick in first/second round). I’d frankly be shocked if the Titans took a corner in the first round, but who knows.
Draft probability: 80%
Linked players: Mackensie Alexander, Eli Apple, Kendall Fuller, Xavien Howard, Tavon Young

Need at position: Moderate-high
Analysis: It’s a good safety class. Rashad Johnson gives them cover for 2016 so a draft pick will not be required to step in immediately. Johnson is on a one-year deal. I don’t see a second starting safety on the roster for 2017 (Da’Norris Searcy is a given). I’m expecting this to happen in the second round, but if there’s a run on the position or too much value elsewhere it doesn’t have to happen.
Draft probability: 90%
Linked players: Vonn Bell, Kevin Byard, Jayron Kearse, Miles Killebrew, Keanu Neal, Tyvis Powell, Jalen Ramsey

UPDATE (2016-04-27, 1230 CT): Added CB Eli Apple and OT Taylor Decker as linked players.

Written by Tom Gower

April 26, 2016 at 18:46

Posted in Tennessee Titans

What I’ve Been Reading (Football and Not)

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Once upon a time, I read books and wrote reviews of them. Book review posts were staples in the Before I Only Wrote About Football blogging days, and were my most regular non-link posts in the early days of this site. Earlier this decade, I wrote reviews-many short, plenty longer-of every book I finished for a blog that nobody else can read. Yet, for one reason or another, I eventually stopped doing that. I switched from full reviews of each football book to capsule reviews in a quarterly post. I started out writing the quarterly post at the end of the quarter. Then a couple weeks after the end of the quarter. By now, it’s been nine months since I posted here about anything I read (and it’s been several years since I’ve written a book review for The Locked Site).

I know I’m quite likely never going to go back to writing about football books the way, but I do want to try to return to the quarterly recaps. After so much time, though, I just want to get everything up to date. Thankfully, I didn’t read that much the past nine months by my standards. In my last book review post, I mentioned the second quarter of 2015 was my least productive reading quarter (in terms of numbers of books finished) since the first quarter of 2010. Third quarter 2015 was my least productive third quarter since 2009 and fourth quarter 2015 was my least productive fourth quarter since 2009 (I note by quarters because my reading has tended to follow seasonal patterns; since I started keeping track by month in 2004, I finish on average 20% more books in July and August than you’d expect, while I finish 26% fewer in June). For the year, I finished 79 books, my lowest total since 2009, and the 9 football books I finished was the lowest total there since 2006. (By comparison, I averaged 117 books per year in 2011-14, so 79 books was for me a 33% drop.) We’ll see what the rest of 2016 brings. In 2010, I finished more books in April than I did in the entire first quarter, but I surely won’t replicate that this year.

Anyway, time for the nominal purpose of this post, telling you what I did actually read. Football first, then non-football, my 2015 favorites, and a look at the unread list.

Football Books-2015
Once again, I was involved in writing a book but failed to talk about it here. Yes, Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the annual tome previewing the NFL and college football seasons from us at Football Outsiders came out. I wrote the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Tennessee Titans chapters. One day I should really talk about my FOA writing process and give a behind-the-scenes look at what I wrote about, why I wrote about what I did, how I wrote the chapters, and some stuff like that. Today will not be that day.

I mentioned in that previous book review post Chris Brown sent me a review copy of his second book, The Art of Smart Football. It’s Chris’s work, so of course you should read it. Like his first book The Essential Smart Football, it’s a collection of essays, most previously published. For me, it wasn’t as essential as Essential, because more of it was familiar to me. Some of the Grantland (R.I.P.) pieces also missed the graphics a digital product can have that a physical book cannot.

When the NFL made all-22 accessible to the public in 2011, one lament/request I heard from fellow outsider fans with an analytical bent was they really didn’t know what they were looking at, and it would be great to have somebody knowledgeable explain to them what was really going on. Alex Kirby’s Every Play Revealed 2 gives you that kind of guide for the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl. It’s probably best read in conjunction with a re-watch of the game itself. I ended up not having the time to do that, alas, and just read the review PDF Alex sent me. He’s done similar books for other games, and they’re probably worth picking up if you really want to study that game. Now if we can just get a consortium of people to do it for every other NFL game…

Thursday evening, I was listening to Bruce Feldman (mostly) talk with Kevin Sumlin about RPOs and the one-back clinic, so it’s fitting that tonight I finally get to writing about Bart Wright’s Football Revolution: The Rise of the Spread Offense and How It Transformed College Football, a history of the spread offense that includes the influence of Dennis Erickson and said one-back clinic. Not a coaching book, but a lot of good interview work and a book I wished I’d read soon after it came out (in the fall of 2013). Recommended.

I wanted more than I got from Brady vs. Manning: The Untold Story of the Rivalry That Transformed the NFL by Gary Myers.

I was a big fan of John U. Bacon’s Three and Out, and though about Michigan thought that book could be read quite profitably by people with no connection to the Wolverines or Ann Arbor. Endzone, I thought, was a book that appeals much more to the UM devotee and wasn’t as broadly interesting.

Football Books-2016
Writing a biography about a living subject who doesn’t cooperate with you is an interesting task. The living subject means that there are contemporaries around, many of whom are probably willing to speak, plus contemporaneous records are generally extant and not too difficult to locate. But you’re still in some ways missing the most important voice. Keith Dunnavant’s Montana is fine for all that, though I’m reminded of my comment on his Bart Starr biography, America’s Quarterback, that was kind of the inflection point for when I got bored with football books.

I wasn’t as big a fan as everybody else seems to be of Adam Lazarus’s Best of Rivals on the Joe Montana-Steve Young quarterback battle when I read that a few years ago. I was a much bigger fan of his Hail to the Redskins on Joe Gibbs’ great Washington teams, plus there’s a great Gibbs quote I want to use in a longer piece I’m still in the planning stages on. Recommended.

NFL Confidential: True Confessions from the Gutter of Football by Shmavid Shmolk, er, “Johnny Anonymous” was a suitably breezy and entertaining book by a player about a team-season, in the instant case David Molk on the Eagles’ 2014. The veneer of anonymity is paper-thin; the travails of the third-string center who ends up playing probably would’ve been enough to identify Molk with even minor work, a Monday off day is a give-away for Chip Kelly and the Eagles, and picking out Jason Peters and DeSean Jackson, among others, was pretty easy. Ball Four it ain’t, but it’s in line with Slow Getting Up as far as recent NFL player memoirs go. The better question is what would a book like Ball Four look like these days? I don’t know, really, but has anybody attempted to write a book like Dryden’s The Game since that came out 35 years ago? That’s a niche I’d like to see filled.

As long as you’re not expecting a full biography or anything more than a quick airplane read (which I mention because this was, in fact, where I read it), Bill Polian’s The Game Plan delivers what you might want. But while I bet he could’ve, Polian wasn’t interested in writing a great book on the NFL.

I finished Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale out of sheer cussedness to see if I would enjoy it any more, if it made any more sense, if it was any better. Nope, and a couple pages at the very end of academic satire were not enough to carry the rest of the work for me. Very strongly anti-recommended to people who share my tastes (see infra).

Jo Walton’s The Just City was an interesting novel about an attempt to set up Plato’s city in the “real” world with people from various stages of history. I forgot if it was in this book or the sequel The Philosopher Kings that Walton had a character note they didn’t get many people from the Enlightenment or later (beyond the POV female character from Victorian England), (a) for which I credit Walton and (b) #TeamEnlightenment. Being science fiction, this is of course a trilogy, and I plan to get the third volume from the library when it comes out as well.

A friend of mine recommended Sean McMullen’s trilogy beginning with Souls in the Great Machine after I asked for books like Anathem in my last book review post. There’s an interesting premise here, which carries the first book, and an interesting change of scenery does the sequel The Miocene Arrow well, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the concluding volume Eyes of the Calculor (a 2016 finish, but it’s not worth breaking up the review for that). Recommended for genre fans.

I did read non-spec fic fiction in the final two quarters of 2015, but not much of it and nothing to recommend.

I was hoping I’d finish Michel Houellebecq’s Submission before the year ended so I could just declare it my favorite fiction read of 2015. But I didn’t, and if it had really deserved its place there, I probably would have. I didn’t enjoy it was much as I did The Map and the Territory.

I suspect I would have enjoyed Anton Chekhov’s The Cherry Orchard more as a dramatic performance than as a book.

Some actual non-genre novels I liked Don Winslow’s The Power of the Dog and its sequel, The Cartel, about the Mexican drug wars from the mid-1970’s onward with a DEA agent protagonist. James Ellroy-esque in how characters overwhelmingly range from shades of gray to black, but much more narrative and much more readable, and epic in scope.

But if you want genre fiction, I did enjoy Daniel Abraham’s The Dagger and the Coin series. Five books, concluded satisfactorily with the just-released The Spider’s War. And am I the only one who sees the outlines of an alt-universe Anakin Skywalker in Geder?

Based on the reaction of my then-6-year-old niece, the start of Chapter 12 of Ian Toll’s Six Frigates on the early U.S. Navy is one of the funniest things ever put to print. She seemed particularly amused by Toll’s use of the word “private,” describing a letter sent by President James Madison. More … mature readers will find it a well-done history of the time period, capably conveying both the on-land and at-sea machinations, something not often done in naval histories.

I was unsurprised to see Ashlee Vance’s Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future make many best of 2015 lists. I’m personally hesitant to put biographies of people who seem like they’re still in the prime of their careers there, simply because I want to be sure the best books of a year to still be really good five years later. But anybody who writes a Musk biography in 2020 or 2050 will have to engage in some way with Vance’s work.

Economist books: I enjoyed both Alvin Roth’s Who Gets What – and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Design, focusing on his work on auction designs, and Richard Thaler’s more specifically a memoir Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. Greg Ip’s Foolproof: Why Safety Can Be Dangerous and How Danger Makes Us Safe I didn’t love as much as others seemed to (I seem to recall seeing it on more than its share of best of 2015 books), but it’s still solid.

Phillip T. Hoffamn’s Why Did Europe Conquer the World? was a book I’d been waiting on for a while, since discovering Hoffman’s work into seventeenth century France years ago. It was good, but wasn’t as much of an addition to the literature as I hoped it would be. I’m not quite sure I’d go as far as R.Albin’s review, but nor would I say he’s wrong.

I read and enjoyed but didn’t love David Hackett Fischer’s Washington’s Crossing about a decade ago, but had put off reading his Paul Revere’s Ride for some time for no very good reason. Like Crossing, it does a fine job of putting the epochal historical event sometimes shrouded in myth and mystery into time-specific context. It shouldn’t be your first book on the American Revolution, but it can profitably be read with just a basic knowledge of the American Revolution and probably can profitably be read by those with a great interest in popular histories of the American Revolution.

The Russians are coming: Bill Browder’s Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man’s Fight for Justice was a nice mix of personal memoir of doing business in Eastern Europe and Russia in the collapse of Soviet hegemony and then in Putin’s Russia, where the life of enemies is cheap. David Hoffman’s The Billion Dollar Spy: A True Story of Cold War Espionage and Betrayal has its own Moscow betrayal and killing but it set a quarter-century or so earlier, as Adolf Tolkachev spies for the U.S. and then is betrayed and executed.

The problem with a book like North Korea Confidential: Private Markets, Fashion Trends, Prison Camps, Dissentors and Defectors is it’s difficult to judge just how good a job Daniel Tudor and James Pearson did of giving us a glimpse into the normally-forbidden and highly-restricted Hermit Kingdom. The available evidence seems to be as good a job as one can. If you can trust it, it’s quite an interesting look at a very different world. If you can’t, then, of course, it’s worthless.

I didn’t enjoy Matt Ridley’s The Evolution of Everything as much as I did his The Rational Optimist; the two books aren’t the same, but I recall a broad thematic similarity and Optimist seems like a better sell. David Starkey’s Magna Carta was a thin book, but did a good job of putting the 1215 document in more context. After Dan Jones’ The Wars of the Roses, I didn’t get as much out of Michael Jones’ Bosworth 1485: The Battle That Transformed England, and probably wouldn’t have finished it had it been longer. As a fan of the novels of Frederick Forsyth, I enjoyed his memoir The Outsider: My Life in Intrigue; his take on Biafra remains quite interesting, though I lack any context for it (or any detail of the conflict in general).

I’ve only finished 7 non-fiction books this year, and 4 of those were about football. Fortunately, two of those other three are worth discussing.

I’ve previously noted I greatly enjoyed Randall Munroe’s xkcd comic and his earlier What If?, where he answers absurd hypothetical questions seriously. His latest book is Thing Explainer: Complicated Stuff in Simple Words, where he explains (with the aid of illustrations) complicated things using just the one thousand most common words. It’s a clever concept, I believe first expressed in his Up Goer Five comic. In book format, though, my overwhelming impression was that it’s just a clever concept and fine details are normally expressed in specific technical jargon because that’s the best, clearest, and most economical way of doing so.

The nature of my project here precludes me from going into too much detail on Martin Gurri’s The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium. But this 2014 work is a superb analysis of the basic fault lines in American (and other) society, as demonstrated in the current Presidential election campaign and many other things. Not exactly a casual read, but worth working through and considering. Quite likely to end up on my best of 2016 list, and would have topped the best of 2015 list (infra). For a glimpse of Gurri’s thought and analysis, see this recent post of his on D***** T****.

Best of 2015
Brief overview notes, also noted in my past end-of-year reviews: I try to read a balance of fiction and non-fiction. For my fiction reads, I tend to prefer plot-heavy narratives. Beyond minimums, literary quality is a plus but not a priority. Genre is ok. For the most part, the fiction I read suffices and clears my palate for other reads, with few of my choices reaching or even aspiring to particularly high heights. Little stands out among my 2015 fiction reads. The most memorable for me was Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky. I repeat my earlier warnings, that this is the most Not For Everybody, Your Mileage May Vary thing I’ve ever mentioned on here and if you start it, and you’re not enjoying it by chapter 8-10, give up. The Walton books were interesting, but I’ll wait to judge those until the final volume comes out. Cixin Liu’s The Three-Body Problem was interesting, but (a) it’s the first volume in a trilogy, (b) I didn’t make any headway into the sequel when I checked it out from the library, and (c) series in progress (at least the English translation thereof). I wish I had non-genre recommendations, but I don’t.

For the third straight year, picking my favorite non-fiction read is quite a challenge, and this feels like an even bigger challenge than it was the past two years. Looking over the list, the standouts in my memory include James Whitman’s The Verdict of Battle (though I am somewhat loath to recommend this more broadly), Laura Hillenbrand’s Unbroken, plus the aforementioned Paul Revere’s Ride and Six Frigates. But I’d put all of them a notch below my 2014 favorites.

Aside from, of course, Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, my favorite football reads of the year were Wright’s aforementioned Football Revolution and, idiosyncratic in some sense it may be, Ran Henry’s Spurrier. I finished entirely too many books I disenjoyed in 2015, including The Handmaid’s Tale and Ernest Cline’s Armada, which I finished out of curiosity to see if it really was that awful. It was (following my Dan Brown parallel, if Ready Player One was his DaVinci CodeArmada is more like his Inferno). I gave up on at least eight books in 2015, including both The Remains of the Day and The Buried Giant by Kazuo Ishiguro.

The Things to Read
Over the next month, I’ll be spending a great deal of time preparing for the 2016 NFL draft. I’ve already acquired Optimum Scouting’s draft guide and Nolan Nawrocki’s NFL Draft 2016 Preview, plus depending on when I get this post up may have already received my pre-ordered copy of Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Dane Brugler‘s forthcoming draft guide is also on the must-buy list, and of course I’ll be supplementing all of those with Lance Zierlein’s draft profiles for Anything else I end up getting, I’ll note on Twitter, and if you want to send me your draft guide, just hit me up.

My book buying tends to go in spurts. Lately, I’ve neglected that I’ve been in a long-lived reading rut, and my acquisitions in the past nine months that I have not yet read include, among others, Dan Drezner’s Theories of International Politics and Zombies, Timothy Brook’s Vermeer’s Hat, Tonio Andrade’s The Gunpowder Age, Monte Burke’s Saban, Ron Chernow’s Washington: A Life, Andrew Roberts’ Napoleon: A Life, and Ben Austro’s So You Think You Know Football?, titles like Alex Kirby’s Speed Kills, Peter H. Wilson’s The Thirty Years War, and many more sit waiting to be read while forthcoming books like the conclusion to Walton’s trilogy and James Gleick’s Time Travel (due out in September and pre-ordered) await in the distance.

As always, War and Peace sits on my end table waiting for me to finally get around to reading it, you should still read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow ($9.07 for the paperback as of right now!) if you have not yet done so, and, of course, de gustibus non est disputandum.

Written by Tom Gower

April 1, 2016 at 12:09

My 2016 Total Titans Archive

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This will be an archive of my and only my Total Titans posts, like the one I did for 2015 and previous years. It will also include links to my appearances on other sites to talk Titans, including my answers to other people’s questions and any audio hits.

APRIL 2016
2016-04-13: Not a post, but I answered questions about Zach Brown for Buffalo Wins

MARCH 2016
2016-03-09: Not a post, but I appeared on Going For Two with Zach and Sharona to talk the Titans, giving up team blogging, and the first official day of free agency (YouTube link)
2016-03-09: Good-Bye to All That
2016-03-08: Too early thoughts on the Titans and the draft
2016-03-08: Titans to trade for DeMarco Murray
2016-03-07: Thoughts on the Titans and free agency
2016-03-04: The holes on the Titans’ depth chart heading into free agency
2016-03-02: Titans add CB Brice McCain
2016-03-01: Notes on the positional analyses

2016-02-26: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ST
2016-02-25: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: S
2016-02-24: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: CB
2016-02-23: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ILB
2016-02-22: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OLB
2016-02-19: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: DL
2016-02-18: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: C
2016-02-17: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: G
2016-02-16: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OT
2016-02-15: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: TE
2016-02-12: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: WR
2016-02-11: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: FB
2016-02-10: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: RB
2016-02-09: 2016 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: QB
2016-02-05: On the Titans’ 2016 coaching staff
2016-02-02: Why did a Titans team I thought would go 6-10 go 3-13?

2016-01-31: On Jon Robinson, Mike Mularkey, and all that
2016-01-17: Titans conclude head coaching “search” by retaining Mike Mularkey
2016-01-15: Titans announce Jon Robinson as new general manager
2016-01-07: Not a post, but I appeared on SI’s On the Clock podcast to talk about the Titans’ options with the first overall pick
2016-01-05: Tennessee Titans picks in 2016 NFL draft
2016-01-04: Titans part with Ruston Webster
2016-01-04: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 17 Snap Report
2016-01-03: Titans clinch #1 pick by losing to Colts, 30-24, after comeback fails
2016-01-03: Titans-Colts inactives, gameday notes of uncaring
2016-01-02: On Ruston Webster and athletic testing

Written by Tom Gower

March 11, 2016 at 08:54

Posted in Total Titans

My 2015 Total Titans Archive

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PROGRAMMING NOTE: What I’ve read lately, football and not, for the last two quarters of 2015, plus my favorites if I can manage to pick some out, coming whenever I bother to write it.

This page is largely for my personal purposes. It’s less important than it’s been in past years, since Total Titans is largely just my work these days. But it’s more convenient for me to have all my posts on a single past, and I also link the interviews I do for other sites here as well. I want to clean out my bookmarks, thus creating this post now even though the year is done.

2015-12-28: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 16 Snap Report
2015-12-27: Titans avoid shutout, only lose to Texans 34-6
2015-12-27: Titans-Texans inactives, gameday notes
2015-12-21: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 15 Snap Report
2015-12-20: Mariota injured as Patriots expectedly dominate Titans
2015-12-20: Titans-Patriots inactives, gameday thread
2015-12-X: Not a post, but I appeared on Patriots Central Radio to preview Titans-Patriots
2015-12-14: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 14 Snap Report
2015-12-13: Mariota catches TD to take headlines off Titans’ dismal performance in 30-8 loss to Jets
2015-12-13: Titans-Jets inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-12-07: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 13 Snap Report
2015-12-06: Home losing streak ends as Titans top Jaguars 42-39 in wild affair
2015-12-06: Titans-Jaguars inactives, gameday notes

2015-11-29: Titans come back in fourth, can’t hold on, fall to Raiders, 24-21
2015-11-29: Titans-Raiders inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-20: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 11 Snap Report
2015-11-19: Another bad fourth quarter costs Titans as they fall to Jaguars, 19-13
2015-11-19: Titans-Jaguars inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-16: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 10 Snap Report
2015-11-15: Rough going for offense as Titans fall to Panthers, 27-10
2015-11-15: Titans-panthers inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-09: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 9 Snap Report
2015-11-08: Titans top Saints in overtime thriller, 34-28
2015-11-08: Titans-Saints inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-11-04: Ken Whisenhunt was fired, so now what?
2015-11-03: Ken Whisenhunt fired
2015-11-02: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 8 Snap Report
2015-11-01: Titans out-inept Texans, fall 20-6
2015-11-01: Titans-Texans inactives, gameday notes

2015-10-30: Not a post, but I answered questions for Steph Stradley to preview Titans-Texans
2015-10-29: Steph Stradley answers Total Titans’ questions about the Texans
2015-10-26: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 7 Snap Report
2015-10-25: Defense strong, but offense stumbles as Titans fall to Falcons 10-7
2015-10-25: Titans-Falcons inactives, gameday notes
2015-10-19: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 6 Snap Report
2015-10-18: Titans home woes continue with 38-10 rout by Dolphins
2015-10-18: Titans-Dolphins inactives, gameday thread
2015-10-12: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 5 Snap Report
2015-10-11: Titans don’t convert yards to points, falls to Bills 14-13
2015-10-11: Titans-Bills inactives, pregame notes
2015-10-09: Buffalo Wins answers Total Titans’ questions about the Bills
2015-10-09: Not a post, but I answered questions for Joe of Buffalo Wins to preview Titans-Bills

2015-09-28: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 3 Snap Report
2015-09-27: Titans recover from early deficit, blow late lead, fail to tie in 35-33 loss to Colts
2015-09-27: Titans-Colts inactives, gameday thoughts
2015-09-25: Nate Dunlevy answers Total Titans’ questions about the Colts
2015-09-25: Not a post, but I answered questions for Nate Dunlevy to preview Titans-Colts
2015-09-21: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 2 Snap Report
2015-09-20: Titans sputter through 28-14 loss to Browns
2015-09-20: Titans-Browns inactives, preview notes
2015-09-14: Tennessee Titans 2015 Week 1 Snap Report
2015-09-13: Mariota sparkles as Titans rout Buccaneers, 42-14
2015-09-13: On the Tennessee Titans’ 2015 season
2015-09-09: More on Terrance West
2015-09-07: 2015 Tennessee Titans 53-man roster analysis
2015-09-05: Titans make cuts to reach 53-man roster limit
2015-09-04: Titans 2015 roster cutdown thread-Friday
2015-09-04: Mariota TD pass, no apparent major injuries highlight Titans fourth preseason game
2015-09-03: Tennessee Titans fourth preseason game preview
2015-09-02: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: ST
2015-09-01: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: S

2015-08-31: Tennessee Titans third preseason game review
2015-08-29: Titans look bad while losing badly to Chiefs
2015-08-28: Tennessee Titans third preseason game preview
2015-08-27: Titans 53-man roster prediction at mid-preseason
2015-08-25: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: CB
2015-08-23: In control from start to finish, Titans top Rams, 27-14
2015-08-21: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: ILB
2015-08-20: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: OLB
2015-08-18: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: DL
2015-08-17: Tennessee Titans first preseason game review
2015-08-14: Two turnovers, one TD for Mariota as Falcons top Titans, 31-24
2015-08-14: Tennessee Titans first preseason game preview
2015-08-13: Thinking about the “skill position” mix and the gameday 46
2015-08-12: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: C
2015-08-11: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: G
2015-08-10: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: OT
2015-08-07: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: TE
2015-08-06: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: WR
2015-08-05: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: FB
2015-08-04: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: RB
2015-08-03: 2015 Tennessee Titans preseason positional analysis: QB

JULY 2015
2015-07-30: Titans 53-man roster prediction as training camp opens
2015-07-28: More on Marcus Mariota
2015-07-27: Breaking down the Titans’ 2015 UDFA signings

MAY 2015
2015-05-05: Recapping the Tennessee Titans’ 2015 draft picks
2015-05-03: Titans conclude draft with OLB Deiontrez Mount, C Andy Gallik, WR Tre McBride
2015-05-02: Titans select RB David Cobb in fifth round
2015-05-02: Titans add DL Angelo Blackson, FB Jalston Fowler in fourth round
2015-05-01: Titans select OT Jeremiah Poutasi in third round
2015-05-01: Titans trade back, select Dorial Green-Beckham
2015-05-01: Titans day 2 draft outlook

APRIL 2015
2015-04-30: Titans stand pat at #2, take Marcus Mariota
2015-04-30: My 2015 seven-round Titans mock
2015-04-30: Titans draft preview by position
2015-04-29: Breaking down the Titans’ (reported) pre-draft visits
2015-04-29: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ST
2015-04-28: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: S
2015-04-27: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: CB
2015-04-27: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: ILB
2015-04-24: Titans add WR Hakeem Nicks
2015-04-24: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OLB
2015-04-21: Tennessee Titans 2015 schedule announced
2015-04-14: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: DL
2015-04-13: Titans preseason schedule announced
2015-04-02: Titans notes-Stingily, Harris, Stevens

MARCH 2015
2015-03-16: Titans sign CB Perrish Cox
2015-03-14: Titans re-sign Klug, Morgan, Succop, add Fasano, Orakpo in busy day
2015-03-12: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: C
2015-03-11: Titans sign WR Harry Douglas, S Da’Norris Searcy
2015-03-10: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: G
2015-03-09: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: OT
2015-03-09: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: TE
2015-03-06: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: WR
2015-03-05: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: FB

2015-02-10: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: RB
2015-02-09: 2015 Tennessee Titans offseason positional analysis: QB
2015-02-06: Titans release RT Michael Oher
2015-02-04: Titans hire Dick LeBeau

2015-01-27: How the Titans targeted their receivers in 2014
2015-01-21: My predicted Titans RB usage against the Titans’ actual running back usage
2015-01-20: Field position and the Titans defense in 2014
2015-01-19: Field position and the Titans offense in 2014
2015-01-16: 2014 Tennessee Titans Snap Report: Defense
2015-01-13: 2014 Tennessee Titans Snap Report: Offense
2015-01-09: 2014 Tennessee Titans Biggest Surprise: Avery Williamson
2015-01-08: 2014 Tennessee Titans Biggest Disappointment: Ken Whisenhunt
2015-01-07: 2014 Tennessee Titans Rookie of the Year: Avery Williamson
2015-01-06: 2014 Tennessee Titans Defensive MVP: Jurrell Casey
2015-01-05: 2014 Tennessee Titans Offensive MVP: Delanie Walker
2015-01-01: Tennessee Titans picks in 2015 NFL draft

Written by Tom Gower

January 2, 2016 at 21:40

Posted in Total Titans

What I’ve Been Reading (Football and Not)

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May and June are annually Football Outsiders Almanac writing season, so after April is devoted to draft preparation, I don’t tend to do much football reading in the second calendar quarter of any given year. Most years I read only one or two books about football during that span, reserving my reading time for books about other subjects. Most quarters, I write separate posts about my football and my non-football reading. For the second quarter, and especially considering it’s the evening of the 27th of July and I’m just getting around to writing a quarterly recap, I’ll be combining my normal separate quarterly recaps.

2Q 2015 was no exception to my normal football reading trends. The only football book I read was On the Clock: The Story of the NFL Draft by Barry Wilner and Ken Rappoport. My favorite book on the draft is Pete Williams’ The DraftOn the Clock did not come anywhere close to challenging Williams’ work for that crown, even though there is room for a work to surpass it.

For various reasons, 2Q 2015 was an unproductive quarter reading-wise even on the non-football front. I only finished 15 books, my smallest total since the first quarter of 2010. Additionally, two-thirds of those were fiction, where I trend to prefer highly narrative reads. Only two of the ten novels I read are worth mentioning, and I loved neither. Dan Simmons, who has written some books I’ve greatly enjoyed (Hyperion) and some I haven’t (Drood), ran an excerpt from the novel that became The Fifth Heart on his website a few years ago, and I found it intriguing. The final book, I found those with an interest in Henry James and/or Sherlock Holmes would probably like it much better. My James reading experience was brief, abortive, and non-recent, while I’ve never been a Holmes fan. More clever than enjoyable, though if you’re a fan of James and/or Holmes, you may find it more enjoyable than I did.

The other work of fiction is Neal Stephenson’s Seveneves. This is a difficult book for me to review. Stephenson is probably my favorite (living?) novelist. I have previously said that the world is comprised of two groups of people, those who have read and enjoyed Cryptonomicon and those with whom it is probably not worth having a casual conversation. I now like Anathem almost as much, and more in some ways. I’m currently (very, very slowly) re-reading his massive The Baroque Cycle. Reviewing Seveneves as a Stephenson hardcore, it’s my least favorite book of his in the past twenty years (I wasn’t a big fan of Snow Crash, which other people love, and it’s been too long since I’ve read Zodiac). Frankly, it seemed like a bit of a waste; a much less talented, less imaginative writer than Stephenson could have written a version of Seveneves that was nearly as good, which I would not have said about his other books (seriously, who else could have written Anathem and made it good? I want to read this person). That said, even inferior, not nearly as funny as normal Stephenson is still much better than standard fare SF, so I liked it even though I found it greatly disappointing. Recommended to people who have already read better books and still need more to read, perhaps?

My non-fiction reading was nearly as lame as my fiction reading. Adam Zamoyski’s Rites of Peace: The Fall of Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna is mostly about the diplomatic maneuverings leading up to the fall and the Congress. The most interesting part is the great social swirl around the Congress, something you get absolutely no sense of in the twentieth century. Were there parties at Yalta, at Potsdam, surrounding the formation of NATO, around the Rio or Kyoto Earth summits? Did the principals interact there and do any business? Was anybody sleeping with anybody else, who was also or had previously or would go on to sleep with somebody else? These people are generally absent from current histories (I haven’t read, say, MacMillan’s Paris 1919), which could be a reflection of the transition from hereditary aristocracy and monarchies to largely non-hereditary and/or democratically-elected leadership and a tendency toward shorter, more directed meetings with more frequent trips home rather than very extended, open-ended meetings where most people are around for more or less the duration. I didn’t love it enough to recommend it more generally, but I do recommend it if you have an interest in the subject. Good chapter length, too, which is often a problem in books of this sort.

I’ve loved some of Bruce Schneier’s past books. Beyond Fear and Liars and Outliers were some of my favorite reads in the years I read them. I was more skeptical about the premise of Data and Goliath. Sadly, my fears were mostly founded. The first half is a useful overview of the current age of mass surveillance; the second half is more political in nature, along the familiar lines of “what the world should be like if everybody adopted the author’s preferred policy tradeoffs.” As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve generally read more than enough of that kind of book. Intelligently discussing the counterarguments and overcoming them will make that kind of book worthwhile anyway, but Schneier acknowledges the counterarguments and didn’t handle them (Bret Stephens’ America in Retreat manages the former, but doesn’t succeed at the latter task, and I wouldn’t have bothered to finish it if it was longer than it was).

Stephen Weinberg is a distinguished physicist. My past fondness for Paul Johnson (haven’t read any of his books lately) indicates I have a fondness, or at least an openness toward whiggish history. But I still did not really enjoy To Explain the World: The Discovery of Modern Science, Weinberg’s almost antiseptic take on moments in scientific discovery from the Greeks through Newton, at which point modern science had been discovered and Weinberg didn’t have to make any declarations that might annoy his friends. Not awful, but not as interesting as I’d hoped.

With my work on Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 pretty much done, I’m about ready to start reading about football again. Chris Brown sent me a review copy of his new book The Art of Smart Football, Alex Kirby sent me a copy of his book Every Play Revealed 2 breaking down the Pats-Seahawks Super Bowl, I’ve begun Bart Wright’s Football Revolution, there’s a whole new crop of football books coming out soon, and, hey, I’ll get to read what everybody else said in FOA2015 as well.

You should still read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow if you have not already done so.

Written by Tom Gower

July 27, 2015 at 22:52

What I’ve Been Reading (Non-Football)

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I read some about football. I read more about other things. I told you about the football books I read in the first quarter of 2015. Now I will tell you about some of the more interesting of the other books I finished that quarter, but not about the uninteresting ones or the ones I don’t feel like discussing.

Most of my fiction reading is unremarkable, read solely for personal enjoyment and relaxation and not sufficiently interesting to be mentioned here. In the first quarter, I finished the final two extant volumes of George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series. If my appetite for television dramas in a year ever exceeds the 13 hours in a season of The Americans, I could start watching Game of Thrones without fear of spoilers for current books.

There’s way too much out there to actually read, so it’s crucial to develop heuristics that help you pick and choose what to even start reading (unless you’re Tyler Cowen and you just read the first 25 pages of every book you possibly can). Explicitly didactic fiction? Normally a big no-no and a huge turn-off. Fan fiction? Apply Sturgeon’s law, then apply Sturgeon’s law again, and apply Sturgeon’s law once again for good measure. Yet I still read, and on the whole greatly enjoyed, Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky. This is the most Not For Everybody, Your Mileage May Vary thing I’ve ever mentioned on here. Familiarity with the Harry Potter books is somewhere between greatly enjoyment-enhancing and absolutely essential. If you start it, and you’re not enjoying it by chapter 8-10, give up. If you love it like I did, settle in for a very long ride. Personal favorites include chapters 37, 45 (duh), and 93.

The death of Singaporean elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew got me to finally finish Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights. I’d left it sitting unread on my phone for a while since it was just a collection of clips from other things LKY had done, and when I read a book I’m preferably looking for arguments longer than a couple paragraphs at the most. I got it on a Kindle deal, and even at the $1.99 or whatever I paid for it I’m not sure it was worth it. The Singapore Story, which I read about 15 years ago, may be my favorite autobiography by a twentieth century politician, though.

As far as installments in the Penguin History of Europe go, Christendom Destroyed by Mark Greengrass ranks significantly closer to Tim Blanning’s The Pursuit of Glory and Chris Wickham’s The Inheritance of Rome than it does to The Birth of Classical Europe. While good and a fine overview, though, I would not put it on the same level as either the Blanning or Wickham and therefore recommend it only to those with an interest in the subject and not more broadly.

Of interest only to a limited audience, I mostly enjoyed James Whitman’s The Verdict of Battle, about how victory in eighteenth century warfare had legal consequences it subsequently lost. It’s not perfect-I would have liked to have seen him draw more out about why Chotusitz was necessary after Mollwitz and more generally if victories whose result was binding could be determined ex ante instead of solely ex post. Further, the eighteenth century rule seems like a better one, but its breakdown was the result of changes in political participation more broadly that on the whole I would characterize as greatly for the better. I’m fine with a book that just describes the baleful influence of Kantians and current trends among international lawyers, but I’m not sure that’s a huge audience.

I know, it’s a movie and everybody else and Peter King has already read it, but I finally got around to Laura Hillenbrand’s Unbroken and found it as compelling a personal story as I’d read in some time even with the ultimate ending being close to the proverbial going home and buying a Buick.

I don’t have much I feel like saying about Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels by Ian Morris, other than that I enjoyed it, though not as much as Why the West Rules-For Now or War! What Is It Good For?, and the commentaries (his main essay originated as the Tanner Lecture in philosophy at Princeton) on his work are all pretty much worthless except that they give him a chance to write more about his thesis in the rebuttal section.

Written by Tom Gower

April 21, 2015 at 20:16

Posted in Non-Football Books

What I’ve Been Reading (Football)

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In the before time, in the long long ago, I read books about football and wrote reviews of them here not long after finishing them. I still read books about football from time to time, but review them periodically. This review covers the books about football I completed in the first calendar quarter of of 2015 (and it’s only April 19, this is almost timely!).

The first quarter of 2015 was not a big football book-reading time for me, as I finished only two football-related books in the quarter. The first of those was Lew Freedman’s 73-0! Bears over Redskins: The NFL’s Greatest Massacre, on Chicago’s defeat of Washington in the 1940 NFL championship game. It was a solid read, and if you’re interested in the topic it’ll do the job. Two months after finishing it, though, little has stuck with me and I did not find it of sufficient general interest to recommend it to those without a specific interest in the 1940 championship game or the Bears.

If you read enough, and broadly enough, you’ll find a book that’s comparable even to books that are different from the norm (cf my difficulty placing Houellebecq). Unfortunately, saying I saw similarities between Ram Henry’s Spurrier: How the Ball Coach Taught the South to Play Football and Mark Panek’s Gaijin Yokozuna is probably not enlightening to anyone else. Both are not quite conventional biographies, but instead combine aspects of conventional biography with a strong sense of time and place that paint a portrait of where the title subject (Steve Spurrier/Akebono, a.k.a. Chad Rowan) grew up and was shaped. If you’re looking for more of a conventional biography, the portion of the book made up of establishing this sense of time and place will probably feel excessive and maybe a bit of a waste. As was the case in Panek’s profile of Rowan’s Hawaii, I thought Henry’s profile of Spurrier’s Johnson City was very interesting and gave a better sense of who he was that a strictly conventional biography would have. I haven’t read any other biographies of Spurrier, but my sense is that there’s still room for a different in-depth biography of Spurrier that covers the time after he leaves Johnson City and before he arrives in Columbia, South Carolina in much better detail. Any comprehensive biography of Spurrier, though, would include a section on his early life that looks much like Henry’s account. Recommended to those who think it sounds interesting.

I also started buying a few books again, and on the football front acquired On the Clock by Barry Wilner and Ken Rapoport, Speed Kills: Breaking Down the Chip Kelly Offense by Alex Kirby, and Bart Wright’s Football Revolution.

Written by Tom Gower

April 19, 2015 at 23:24

Posted in Book Reviews


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